Politics, Government & Current Affairs

Conservatives Lead By 11 Points in First GE2017 Poll – Survation for Mail on Sunday

Survation’s first General Election Voting Intention poll since Theresa May’s call for a General Election gained parliamentary approval shows the Conservative Party with more than a double-digit lead over Labour.

State of the Parties

CON 40%; LAB 29%; LD 11%; UKIP 11%; SNP 4%; GRE 2%; Others 3%

Two-fifths (40%) of those who stated a voting intention would vote for Theresa May’s party, compared to less than a third (29%) who would vote for Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour.

UKIP and the Liberal Democrats stand neck-and-neck on 11% of the vote apiece, which would register seat gains for the Liberal Democrats rather than UKIP under first-past-the-post.

Policy

Much was made over the Easter period of Labour and their policy blitz, which achieved high levels of support in our poll among a barrage of potential party manifesto policies. Raising the minimum wage to £10 by 2020 (72% vs 15%), raising income tax on those who earn over £70,000 a year (64% vs 20%) and free school meals for all primary school children funded by charging VAT on private school feels (55% vs 30%) all achieved significant support.

In contrast, questions related to the Prime Minister declining to rule out ending the “triple lock” on pensions and the Chancellor refusing to rule out raising income tax or national insurance fell flat with voters from other parties that the Conservative Party would seek to win over in the this election.

Brexit

With Theresa May calling an election in order to seek a mandate of her own as she negotiates the terms of Brexit, issues around Britain leaving the European Union are sure to dominate the campaign.

Over half (56%) said that leaving the EU without a mutually agreed deal on the terms of Brexit would be bad for Britain, compared to just over a quarter (28%) who think leaving the EU without such a deal would be good for Britain. Pressure will certainly be on the Prime Minister as negotiation progress to deliver a deal.

However, more than half (53%) of respondents said that they trust Theresa May’s judgement to deliver a “good deal for Britain” regarding a Brexit deal with the EU, compared to a third (34%) who said that they did not trust her. The remainder (13%) didn’t know.

When compared with her rival party leaders, nearly half (49%) of all respondents said that they trust Theresa May the most to negotiate the best Brexit deal compared to 16% who said they trust Jeremy Corbyn the most, and 9% who said Tim Farron.

Leadership

Nearly half of respondents (49%) said that Ms May’s stated intention to not take part in any live, televised leadership debates is wrong, compared to just over a third (36%) who said that she was right. Fifteen per-cent did not express a view.

Further, 50% of people think that Ms May called a snap General Election in the interests of herself and her party, compared to 38% who thought that she called an election in the interests of the country.

Full tables are available here.

Survation interviewed 2,072 UK adults aged 18+ between 21st – 22nd April 2017. Survation is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

Chris Hopkins

Chris Hopkins

Senior Project Manager

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