Politics, Government & Current Affairs

Survation Current State of the Parties

 

 

April 30th – National State Of The Parties (plus change since our last state of the parties survey April 7th)

LAB 37% +2 CON 30% (No Change) LD 12.5% (+1.5) UKIP 9% (-2) AP 12% (NC)

Local Election Overall Voting Intention 2012

LAB 32 CON 26 LD 15 GRE 8 UKIP 7 BNP 3 SNP 3 PC 1 OTH 6

Applying the local poll to the national local council equivalent vote “last time” – (2008) in a fairly simplistic fashion for the 3 main parties contesting and contending for most council elections we get:

LAB +8 CON -17 LD – 9

Implied CON to LAB swing is 12.5%

Implied CON to LD swing is 4%

Implied LD to LAB swing is 8.5%

That would see a huge (800-1000) Labour gain, mostly at the expense of the Tories but also the Lib Dems.

Damian Lyons Lowe.

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