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Green shoots of a recovery for Labour in Scotland?

We have a new Scottish political poll out today on behalf of the Daily Record conducted via online panel 27th-30th of November.  For comparison, i’ve added to the tables results from Scotland polling Survation conducted on the 14th of September.

 

Westminster voting intention     4/12    14/09
Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party          25%    26%
Scottish Labour Party       28%    26%
Scottish Liberal Democrats         7%     7%
Scottish National Party (SNP)        37%      39%
Another party       3%       2%

As you can see, there are not huge changes in voting intention since our September polling, however even small changes in Westminster voting intention mean that seats change hands in a new election due to the preponderance of marginal seats – in particular SNP/Labour and SNP/Conservative.

 

The effect on seats

If we input today’s published vote share figures into Baxter’s Scotland model, modelling today’s figures against the vote share the parties achieved at the General Election we can see the effect on seats at play.

Although the SNP has essentially the same vote share in today’s polling as at the GE and despite the Conservatives having the worst showing overall in this poll, Labour’s slightly improved fortunes vs. the election mean that the party would pick up 7 seats – from the SNP. SNP held Fife would go Lib Dem, with the SNP picking up just a single seat – Stirling – from the Conservatives.

 

 

Party2017 Vote2017 SeatsSurvation Polling 4/12GainsLossesNet Change Seats
Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party  28.6%1325.1%01-112
Scottish Labour Party 27.1%728.3%70+714
Scottish Liberal Democrats    6.8%47.3%10+15
UKIP0.2%00.2%00+00
Scottish Green Party0.2%00.2%00+00
Scottish National Party (SNP)36.9%3536.5%18-728

Scottish Independence,  Brexit and Holyrood.

Elsewhere in the polling, support for Scottish Independence remains firm, with yes on 47%. Scotland remains about as “remain” as it was at the time of the EU referendum.


If there was a referendum tomorrow with the question
‘Should Scotland be an Independent country?’, how would you vote?

 

Indy Ref II4/1213/09
Yes47%46%
No 53% 54%

 

EU Referendum “tomorrow”
Leave32%
Remain68%

 

Scottish Parliament

 

Holyrood constituency voting intention4/1214/09
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party   24%26%
Scottish Labour      25%25%
Scottish Liberal Democrat   8%7%
Scottish National Party (SNP)39%42%
Another party 3%2%

 

Holyrood list voting intention4/1214/09
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party   22%21%
Scottish Labour   25%25%
Scottish Liberal Democrat 8%10%
Scottish National Party (SNP)       33%31%
Scottish Green Party  8%9%
UKIP                3%3%
Another party     <1%<1%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Full data tables for voting intention are available here:

Sample size: 1,017   Fieldwork dates: 27th-30th November 2017 Method: People in Scotland aged 16+ interviewed online. Survation is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

 

 

Damian Lyons Lowe

Damian Lyons Lowe

Founder & CEO

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