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How Has Political Opinion Changed Since Before The Local Elections?

Fieldwork May 17th – 18th

General Election Voting Intention, Change Since Survation poll, May 1st

Conservative: 24% (-5)
Labour: 35% (-1)
Liberal Democrat: 11% (-1)
UKIP: 22% (+6)
Other: 8% (nc)

European Election Voting Intentions, Change Since Survation/Mail on Sunday poll, Jan 5th

Conservative: 20% (-4)
Labour: 31% (nc)
UKIP: 30% (+8)
Liberal Democrat: 8% (-3)
Green: 6% (nc)
Other: 5% (-1)

EU Referendum Voting Intention, Change Since Survation/Mail on Sunday poll, 25th January

Stay: 36% (nc)
Leave: 50% (nc)
Don’t know: 14% (+1)

Notes:

This is the first national opinion poll post the allegations of a senior Conservative party member’s “insulting” of local Conservative associations. The figure of 24% for the Conservatives is the lowest (by 1%) of any pollster this cycle and a record low for Survation. Although difficult to be exact, UKIP’s rise in European Election fortunes would likely give them the most seats in the European parliament of any UK party.

Full tables can be found here:

Survation conduct regular bespoke telephone and online research in constituencies and for local, national and European elections.  Survation is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Email researchteam@survation.com with any queries or enquiries.

Methodology Details:

 

Fieldwork
May 17th – 18th

Data Collection Method
The survey was conducted via online panel. Invitations to complete surveys were sent out to members of the panel. Differential response rates from different demographic groups were taken into account.

Population Sampled
All adults aged 18+ England, Scotland and Wales.

Sample Size
1,000

Data Weighting
Data were weighted to the profile of all adults aged 18+. Data were weighted by gender, age, region and past vote. Targets for the weighted data were derived from Office of National Statistics data and the results of the 2010 General Election.

Margin of Error
Because only a sample of the full population was interviewed, all results are subject to margin of error, meaning that not all differences are statistically significant. For example, in a question where 50% (the worst case scenario as far as margin of error is concerned) gave a particular answer, with a sample of 1,001 it is 95% certain that the ‘true’ value will fall within the range of 3.1% from the sample result. Subsamples from the cross-breaks will be subject to higher margin of error, conclusions drawn from crossbreaks with very small sub-samples should be treated with caution.

Voting Intention
To determine voting intention we first ask respondents how likely they are to vote in a General Election on a scale of 0-10. We then ask which party they are most likely to vote for, prompting for the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats and UKIP shown in a random order, and other parties displayed under “Another Party”.

Final published figures for voting intention are calculated via a three step process which is shown in the data tables. Firstly the demographically weighting voting intention tables are further weighted by likelihood to vote where those saying “10” are given a weighting of 1, “9” given a weighting of 0.9 etc. down to those saying “0” given a weighting of 0 and hence excluded.

Those saying “undecided/don’t know” and those refusing the question are then removed from the tables, and if they gave an indication of who they voted for in 2010 then are reinserted with that as their voting intention, but down-weighted by a factor of 0.3. Final published voting intention figures can therefore be found in Table 22.

Question presentation
All data tables shown in full below, in order and wording put to respondents, including but not limited to all tables relating to published data and all relevant tables preceding them. Tables for demographic questions might not be included but these should be clear from the cross-breaks on published tables. In all questions where the responses are a list of parties, names or statements, these will typically have been displayed to respondents in a randomising order. The only questions which would not have had randomising responses would be those in which there was a natural order to maintain – e.g. a scale from “strongly agree” to “strongly disagree”, a list of numbers from 0 to 10 or questions which had factual
rather than opinion-related answers such as demographic information. “Other”, “Don’t know” and “Refused” responses are not randomised.

Data were analysed and weighted by Survation’s team of statistical consultants and presented by Patrick Briône and Damian Lyons Lowe of Survation.

 


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