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Our Latest Polls Indicate Majority Support “Soft” Brexit

  • Voters disagree with Theresa May’s mantra “no deal is better than a bad deal”, with 58% against leaving the EU without a deal, and 55% in favour of a “soft” Brexit
  • There is support for a referendum on a possible deal with the EU once negotiations are over, with 48% in favour and 43% against
  • Labour are three points ahead of the Conservatives, with the parties on 44% and 41%, respectively
  • But voters still trust May more than Corbyn to deliver a good Brexit deal, by 52% to 39%

Our two latest polls, for ITV’s Good Morning Britain, and for the Mail on Sunday, have weighed public opinion on Brexit in the wake of the General Election (see links for full tables).

Respondents told us Brexit was the number one issue that decided their vote in the election. 12% chose Brexit, followed by the NHS, on 10%, and tribal loyalty, the economy and party leader, all on 8%.

 

Whither Brexit?

Our polls indicate the public are in favour of a “soft” Brexit.

A majority of voters think a deal should be agreed on the terms of exit. When asked if they thought leaving the EU without a mutually agreed deal would be good or bad for Britain, 58% thought it would be bad, and 31% thought it would be good.

And when given the direct choice between a “soft” Brexit, involving staying in the EU single market and customs union, and a “hard” Brexit – which would mean leaving both – 55% said they preferred a “soft” Brexit, against 35% for the “hard” option.

 

Another Referendum, but Only on the Deal

Voters support a referendum on a possible deal with the EU. But not a rerun of 2016’s vote.

We asked: “When the UK Government’s negotiations over the terms of Britain’s exit from the EU are complete, would you…?

  1. Support holding a referendum asking the public if they will accept or reject a deal
  2. Oppose a referendum asking the public if they will accept or reject a deal”.

48% supported the idea; 43% opposed it.

A separate poll found only 38% in favour of a referendum with the same wording as 2016’s, with 57% opposed.

However, if the 2016 vote were repeated, 51% said they would now vote remain, against 49% for leave. This excludes those who said don’t know, or refused the question.

 

Leaders vs. Parties

More voters trust Theresa May than Jeremy Corbyn to deliver a good Brexit deal. 52% of respondents chose her, against only 39% for Corbyn.

But that doesn’t mean voters think the Conservative Government should have full control over the negotiations.

We asked if they thought the Conservative Government, or a coalition of all parties, would be best placed to negotiate a deal for Britain.

Only 35% chose the Conservatives, and 60% thought a coalition of all parties would be best.

Labour have kept ahead of the Conservatives in voting intention since the General Election. 44% now say they would vote Labour, against 41% for the Conservatives. This would make Labour the largest party in parliament, according to the table below (source: Electoral Calculus).

Party2017 Election Votes2017 Election SeatsPredicted VotesGainsLossesNet ChangeTotal Predicted Seats
CON43.5%31841.0%237-35283
LAB41.0%26244.0%460+46308
LIB7.6%126.0%02-210
UKIP1.9%02.0%0000
Green1.7%11.0%0001
SNP3.1%353.1%19-827
Plaid0.5%40.5%01-13
Minor0.7%02.4%0000
N. Ireland1800018

The Liberal Democrats are on 6%, UKIP 2% and other parties 8%.

Survation interviewed 1,005 members of the public by telephone on June 16th and 17th.

Survation’s unique methodology made us the most accurate pollster of the 2017 General Election. Full details here.


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