Lynton Crosby’s “Barnacles Off The Boat” Strategy Needed To Win Back Tory C2DE Voters.
Conservative Strategist Lynton Crosby’s “Get The Barnacles Off The Boat” Strategy Needed To Win Back C2DE Voters – The SEG Cross-Breaks Tell The Story
Voting Intention*: LAB 36% CON 28% UKIP 20% LD 9% Others 7%.
*Change versus our last poll? We have introduced an additional household income weighting in this poll, and so as a policy we do not make comparisons to previous polls when a methodology has changed – even for a minor change such as this.
There’s an 8 point gap between Labour and the Conservatives in today’s poll with UKIP remaining the electoral spoiler for the Tories. 29% of those that voted Conservative in 2010 say in today’s poll they would now vote UKIP in a General Election – the difference between being 8 points adrift of Labour and being neck and neck.
The Conservative strategy to appear on the front foot vs the anti-EU UKIP regarding a European referendum is now well established, but that UKIP support remains stubbornly buoyant is testament to the breadth of the party’s “pull” beyond the old “single issue party” canard.
UKIP are almost ahead of the Conservatives among the C2 demographic group and clearly ahead in the DE group – so it is no surprise that current strategy in Number 10 is focused on issues of major concern to this group – perceived unfairness issues such as welfare and immigration at a time of economic unease. Without a coherent message of economic competence, getting a grip on these perceived unfairness issues and convincing this lost tribe of 2010 Tory voters of results, 2015 will be a procession for Labour.
Tory 2010 voters in the higher socio-economic groups are far more likely to still be voting Tory – observe:
AB ===> LAB 38% CON 33% UKIP 11% LD 11%