Politics, Government & Current Affairs

Scotland Voting Intention: Labour’s Westminster Share Up Three Points Since September 2017

Survation’s latest Scotland poll was released yesterday (10/12/2017) in the Sunday Post. It shows Labour’s voting intention for the Westminster Parliament up three points from September, to 29%; the Scottish National Party (SNP), is down one point over the same period, to 38%; the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party is down two points, to 24% and the Scottish Liberal Democrats are unchanged, on 7%.

 

Scotland Westminster Voting Intention: September – December 2017

 

September 13th December 6th
Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party 26% 24%
Scottish Labour Party 26% 29%
Scottish Liberal Democrats 7% 7%
Scottish National Party 39% 38%
Another Party 2% 3%

 

If we put these Westminster voting intention figures into Martin Baxter’s Electoral Calculus seat predictor, it forecasts Labour to gain six seats, up to 13 Scottish seats in Westminster; SNP lose four, down to 31 seats; Conservatives lose two, down to 11 seats and all other parties are unchanged.

 

Scotland Westminster Voting Intention – the Effect on Seats

 

Party 2017 Votes 2017 Seats Pred Votes Gains Losses Net Change Pred Seats
CON 28.60% 13 23.90% 0 2 -2 11
LAB 27.10% 7 29.00% 6 0 +6 13
LIB 6.80% 4 6.90% 0 0 0 4
UKIP 0.20% 0 0.20% 0 0 0 0
Green 0.20% 0 0.20% 0 0 0 0
SNP 36.90% 35 37.70% 2 6 -4 31
Minor 0.30% 0 2.10% 0 0 0 0

Scottish Independence, Brexit and Holyrood

Support for independence remains unchanged when compared with September’s figures, on 46% for Yes, against 54% for No.

 

Indy Ref II September 13th December 6th
Yes 46% 46%
No 54% 54%

 

Scotland shows no sign of shifting away from its heavy pro-Remain leaning, with 69% of this poll supporting Remain, against only 31% for Leave.

 

EU Referendum “tomorrow”
Leave 31%
Remain 69%

Holyrood Constituency Voting Intention: September – December 2017

Scottish Labour will see similar good news in their constituency voting intention for Holyrood, the Scottish Parliament, where the party is also up three points from September, to 28%; the SNP is down three points, to 39%; Conservatives are down two points, to 24% and the Liberal Democrats are again unchanged, on 7%.

 

September 13th December 6th
Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party 26% 24%
Scottish Labour Party 25% 28%
Scottish Liberal Democrats 7% 7%
Scottish National Party 42% 39%
Another Party 2% 2%

Holyrood List Voting Intention: Voting Intention: September – December 2017

 

September 13th December 6th
Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party 21% 21%
Scottish Labour Party 25% 24%
Scottish Liberal Democrats 10% 10%
Scottish National Party 31% 32%
Scottish Green Party 9% 10%
UKIP 3% 3%
Another Party 9% 1%

 

Survation interviewed 1,006 Scottish adults online from December 1st to 5th, 2017. Full tables can be found here.

Tom Bristow

Tom Bristow

Tender Officer

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