The election was a huge success for Labour, as the party returned to Government with a Commons majority of 174. Meanwhile the Conservatives faced a wholesale rejection, being reduced to just 121 MPs. The Conservatives’ 2019 coalition fell apart as the party’s vote share fell by 20% nationally, 29% in seats where the party won more than 50% in 2019, and by 28% in seats where more than 65% of people voted Leave. 

The Conservatives were clearly rejected by the electorate, but this was not a ringing endorsement of Labour. The landslide was delivered on just 34% of the vote – the lowest share of the vote obtained by a single-party government since the war. This is reflected in the prevailing view that despite winning the largest majority since 1997, the past six months have been a struggle for the party. 

Our final voting intention poll, conducted between 12th – 16th December, shows a four point decline in Labour’s share of the vote since the general election. While the Conservatives are up one point to 25%, the biggest beneficiaries are Reform UK. The Farage-led party has increased its share of the vote by 6% since the election. Reform finished second in 98 seats in July, 89 of which were won by Labour (although they are within 10% of Labour in just three of these seats). While Reform poses a threat to Labour in its northern and Welsh heartlands, they present a far greater challenge to the Conservatives. This poll indicates that 2024 Conservative voters are twice as likely as Labour voters to now plan to vote for Reform. The right wing vote is split in such a way that it enables Labour’s support to appear incredibly efficient. For example, Labour gained 20 seats in which its share of the vote actually declined relative to 2019, largely due to the split on the right. An unpopular Labour government alone is insufficient to drive a Conservative recovery, as right-leaning voters have an alternative channel for expressing their dissatisfaction. Vote shares such as those below could stretch the first-past-the-post to its breaking point.

Labour’s six milestones reflect Labour’s efforts to rebuild trust and demonstrate competence in governance. They are betting that they can hold their electoral coalition together by focusing on long-term delivery. The cost of living and the NHS have dominated voters’ priorities since the pandemic, and both are reflected in the milestones. Immigration, notably absent from Labour’s six milestones, stands out as the top issue for both Conservative and Reform voters. These voters are more than twice as likely as Labour voters to identify immigration as one of the three most important issues facing the country, reflecting a divergence in priorities across the political spectrum. Reform voters have a particularly outsized interest in immigration, 38% of Reform voters prioritise immigration as their number one concern, far exceeding the importance placed on any other issue – the reciprocal figure for Conservative voters is 25%. Both parties will by vying to control this issue throughout 2025 and beyond.

There is very little confidence in the Government’s ability to address any of the major policy areas, and net confidence is negative in every area. People are particularly pessimistic about immigration (-26%) and refugees and asylum (-29%). Interestingly, this discontent appears to stem from both ends of the debate—those advocating for more liberal policies and those favoring stricter measures. For instance, on the issue of Refugees and Asylum, net confidence is deeply negative among Green voters (-33%) and Liberal Democrats (-37%), as well as among Reform (-56%) and Conservative voters (-59%), who advocate for tighter restrictions. Similarly, on Immigration, Greens and Liberal Democrats exhibit net confidence of -24% and -31%, respectively, while Conservatives and Reform voters are at -58% and -55%. This negativity is also mirrored in Labour supporters’ views, particularly regarding Refugees and Asylum, where they express the least confidence in the Government’s handling of the issue. 

Expectations were modest when Labour took office, with Immigration and Crime being the only two policy areas where a majority of people anticipated conditions would worsen rather than improve. However, a growing concern for the government is the rising pessimism regarding the NHS. In the immediate aftermath of the election, a broad plurality of the public believed NHS outcomes would improve over the next five years. Yet, just six months later, this optimism has sharply declined. Even among Conservative voters, who were initially divided - 29% expecting improvements and 31% predicting decline - confidence has plummeted, with 57% now expressing a lack of faith in the Government’s ability to improve NHS outcomes. Reform voters, largely defined by their anti-establishment identity, are even more pessimistic: the majority of Reform voters are not confident in the Government’s ability to address any key issue. Labour wants to focus on delivery, and the NHS will be key to that. Any improvement is likely to come as a pleasant surprise to voters.

Discontent is widespread, but voters do not believe any party would fare better in government. Across the 16 key issues, Labour is the most trusted on 10, the Conservatives on three (defence, pensions, foreign policy), and neither on three (environment, immigration, culture). Labour will be pleased to see they are ahead on the NHS (+7%) and the cost of living (+2%), although these leads are a fraction of what they experienced in opposition. Despite the widespread interest in Reform, this question indicates that most people do not consider them to be a credible governing force. There is no issue on which Reform is the most trusted party. It is only on immigration that Reform come close, but even here they are tied Labour.

No party leader looks well-poised to capitalise on the Government’s struggles either. The public lacks confidence in Starmer, Badenoch, and Farage across nearly all issues. Badenoch needs to peel votes away from Reform, but confidence in Badenoch’s approach to immigration is low (-14%) among those who voted for the party in the election, while Farage enjoys overwhelming confidence on the issue (+62%). To complicate matters further, even Conservative voters express confidence in Farage’s approach (+22%), despite being unimpressed with Starmer's (-21%). Farage breaks even when it comes to confidence to address immigration - the only issue where a leader records a positive score is Badenoch on national security (+2%). Given the distinguishing feature of those inclined to vote Reform is their outsized concern with immigration relative to the rest of the population, this is a strong relative position for the Reform leader.

There is clearly a fair degree of uncertainty when it comes to Badenoch. The new Conservative leader is not strongly associated with any of the characteristics below. A challenge for Starmer is that 41% of the public perceive him as out of touch, undermining the image he worked hard to craft during the election campaign. Being generous, you could argue this might be a result of the Labour leader becoming the Prime Minister, but even Labour voters were more likely to associate him with being out of touch (29%) than either Badenoch (28%) or Farage (25%). Starmer’s class origin could be an effective tool in connecting with the public on the cost of living crisis, but it has not been deployed effectively in messaging thus far.

Labour has prioritised making what they consider difficult decisions early in their tenure, a strategy that at times appeared as if they were intentionally courting unpopularity - and it has yielded results. Labour is now the most disliked major party in Britain. 

However, public sentiment toward all parties is overwhelmingly negative, with political attachments driven more by aversion than loyalty. This trend is evident when examining how voters perceive the parties they supported in the election. Labour voters express the lowest net likeability toward their own party, reflecting dissatisfaction within their base. Despite this, these voters are not gravitating toward Reform UK, which holds a net likeability of -29% among Labour voters. In contrast, Conservative voters demonstrate a much stronger affinity for Reform, showing a positive net likeability of +9% toward the party.

Labour is grappling with widespread public dissatisfaction, reflected in alarmingly poor headline numbers. While this discontent poses a serious challenge, it remains unclear where it might ultimately lead. Despite criticism of Labour, there is currently no clear alternative for disillusioned voters, as the Conservatives remain mired in an even deeper crisis. A strengthened Reform UK may appear to offer a credible outlet for dissatisfaction, but its growing appeal is more likely to erode Conservative support than to challenge Labour directly.

Adding to Labour’s challenges are emerging divisions between its leadership in Westminster and Scotland, particularly over policies like the two-child limit and winter fuel payments. With Holyrood elections just 18 months away, Scottish Labour faces a pressing need to deliver tangible results ahead of May 2026, as the government’s long-term strategy of trading short-term unpopularity for future goodwill may not suffice north of the border.

The party’s struggles highlight the risks of ceding ground without a clear narrative of progress. While Labour’s bet on governance and delivery may yet yield dividends by the next general election, they cannot afford to abdicate politics in the interim. To rebuild trust and momentum, Labour must actively communicate its vision and demonstrate progress on the key issues affecting voters across the UK. In an era of pervasive disillusionment with all parties, Labour’s ability to tell a compelling story about its governance will be critical.

Get the data

Survation conducted an online poll of 2,030 adults aged 18+ in the UK. Fieldwork was conducted between 12th - 16th December 2024. Tables are available here.

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