As with analysis from leading political scientists who have had the unenviable task of projecting “national vote share” after low-turnout local elections, Survation’s first Westminster Voting Intention polling since the local elections shows Labour and the Conservatives ‘neck and neck’. However the figures do not show a great departure from our April 15th published work on behalf of Mail on Sunday.

State of the parties (UK) (chg. vs 15th April 2018)

CON 41% +1 LAB 40% NC LD 8% -1 UKIP 3% NC SNP 3% NC GRE 2% +1 AP 3% -1

Survation polling since GE 2017 (CON vs LAB)

Impact on Seats

Notionally, using Martin Baxter’s “Strong Transition*” seats model (which allows input of CON/LAB/LD/UKIP/GRE/SNP (including Baxter’s Scotland adjustment using Survation Scotland data) this would produce the following seat picture if replicated at a General Election:

We also repeated our regular conceptual “EU Second Referendum” question, which is a reasonable proxy for Leave/Remain support. The top line figures were, as usual, fairly static:

LEAVE 50% (+1); REMAIN 50% (-1) 

(chg. vs Survation polling 15th April 2018)

Full Data tables can be found here.

Research was conducted online with a sample of 1585 UK Adults aged 18+.

Fieldwork from 8-10 May 2018.

Survation are members of the British Polling Council.

BPC Statement: All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points.

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