With just eight days until the election, the Conservatives have recorded their lowest ever share of the vote in Survation’s headline voting intention.

Both main parties have seen their share of voting intentions decline by similar amounts since the election was called. In the first week of the campaign, the Conservatives were on 24% and Labour 47%. Four weeks later and the Conservatives have fallen to 18% and Labour 41%. Although the Labour lead has barely moved, there is a lot going on under the surface. The principal beneficiaries have been smaller parties. Since Farage entered the race, Reform UK has risen 5-7 points in the polls, overwhelmingly at the expense of the Conservatives, while both the Liberal Democrats and Greens have also been boosted by 1-3 points.

One justification for calling a summer election was the belief it would sharpen voters’ focus on the choice between Labour and the Conservatives. The rationale was that there existed a lack of enthusiasm towards Labour and uncertainty about Keir Starmer. Voters have clearly decided on one thing: they believe Keir Starmer would make a better Prime Minister than Rishi Sunak. On a question which tends to favour the incumbent, Starmer leads Sunak by 20 points. On the day the Prime Minister called the election, the lead was 10 points.

While we have seen signs that the distance between the two leaders on economic trust has narrowed, the Labour leader still holds an 8 point advantage – as does his Shadow Chancellor over her counterpart.

The Conservatives have tried to convince voters that a Labour Government would introduce substantial tax rises. Last week we found that people believe Starmer is being more honest about his tax pledges than Sunak, and here we see that a plurality think they would be financially better off under Labour. However there is some evidence the Conservatives’ pledges on pensions might have proven effective, as twice the number of those aged 75+ think they will be better off under the Conservatives than Labour.

Those intending to vote Reform UK are also much more likely (+28%) to believe they will be better off under the Conservatives. There are two ways of reading this. Either i) this shows Reform voters could be squeezed in the final week, as the choice of Government is ultimately either Labour or the Conservatives or; ii) that those backing Reform are doing so despite thinking it might disadvantage them financially indicates their priorities lay elsewhere and it will be tough to squeeze them on this message.

Reform voters have an outsized concern about immigration relative to the rest of the electorate. Worryingly for the Government, on this issue a majority of those intending to vote Reform say they trust neither of the main parties, although 29% picked the Conservatives compared to 16% for Labour.

The Conservatives have failed to reduce Labour’s lead on the four key issues below. It is difficult to overstate the significance of Labour’s 27 point lead on the cost of living, 36 point lead on the NHS, 13 point lead on immigration, and a 15 point lead on the economy generally. These are the four issues which matter the most to voters and the Conservatives are not trusted more than Labour on any of them. On the two most important issues, the NHS and cost of living, the gap between the two parties is seismic. People do not trust in the Conservatives’ ability to govern.

With one week to go the Conservatives have failed to square off the Reform vote and undecided voters have not broken in their favour. Had either of those things occurred, the polls might have narrowed. Given they have not, the six week campaign may end up barely influencing the result.

Get the data

Survation conducted a telephone poll of 1,022 adults aged 18+ in the UK on behalf of Good Morning Britain. Fieldwork was conducted between 21st – 25th June 2024. Tables are available here. 

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