Survation’s constituency poll in Clacton shows Nigel Farage is on course to win the seat on an unprecedented 43.5% swing from the Conservatives to Reform UK.

Clacton was the only seat won by UKIP in the 2015 General Election, returning Tory defector Douglas Carswell on the heels of his 2014 by-election victory. Retaken by the Conservatives in 2017, by 2019 Clacton was a Conservative seat with a massive, almost 25,000 Tory majority (72% vote share) over Labour (16%), assisted by the Brexit Party’s decision to stand down candidates in Conservative-held seats.

The Conservatives’ 2024 problem is that significantly more of their 2019 voters say they will vote for Farage than for the former Conservative MP, Giles Watling.  50% of 2019 Conservative voters told Survation they will vote for the Reform Party Leader, versus just 38% who will stay loyal and vote for Watling. One in ten former Tory voters will vote for the Labour candidate Jovan Owusu-Nepaul, and Farage is also attracting support from some 2019 Labour voters (10%).

There is considerable negativity towards both PM Rishi Sunak (-40 NET favourability) and Labour leader Keir Starmer (-39), as well as for Ed Davey (-32). The former MP in the constituency, Giles Watling, fares somewhat better (-23) while Nigel Farage manages a -5 rating. Farage has the largest number of constituents rating him favourably of any of the politicians put to respondents, but he tends to be viewed unfavourably by those who opt for other parties, voted Remain, or among the youngest groups.

As things stand, Farage is set to become an MP on his 8th attempt. The Conservatives won 72% of the vote in Clacton in 2019, and the collapse of their vote highlights a realignment of voter preferences and could signal broader changes in the political landscape.

Get the data

Survation conducted a telephone poll of 506 adults aged 18+ living in the Clacton constituency on behalf of Arron Banks. Fieldwork was conducted between 11th – 13th June 2024. Tables are available here. 

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