Yesterday, we published our final polling call based on our telephone poll conducted between the 1st and the 3rd of July, alongside an updated set of MRP (Multilevel Regression and Poststratification) estimates to provide an estimate of seat distribution between the parties. These estimates were derived from a posterior distribution based on 100 simulated outcomes, meaning that if we indicate a 50% probability of an outcome occurring, it happened in 50 out of the 100 iterations of the model.

Latest Update

Overnight, we ran the same model, which now includes the final 180 responses collected yesterday evening, with a higher number of simulations (800). This is helpful for two reasons. Firstly, each iteration of the model represents a simulated outcome from the posterior distribution. By increasing the number of iterations, we achieve a more precise approximation of this distribution and minimise the variability in our outcomes. Secondly, this increase allows us to have greater certainty in estimates for individual constituencies by reducing the likelihood of underestimating or overestimating the probability of certain outcomes due to random noise in the data. This will be our final update of any kind for this General Election. Below are our updated estimates.

Final probabilistic seat count:

Labour: 470 (-5)

Conservative: 68 (+4)

Liberal Democrats: 59 (-1)

Scottish National Party: 14 (+1)

Reform UK: 15 (+2)

Green Party: 4 (+1)

Plaid Cymru: 3 (-1)

The seat count sums to 633 due to rounding. Changes vs. 3rd July 2024.

Get the data

Survation conducted MRP analysis of 36,350 adults aged 18+ in Great Britain on their voting intentions. Fieldwork was primarily conducted between 15th June - 3rd July 2024. The full results are available to download here.

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If you are interested in commissioning MRP or to learn more about Survation’s research capabilities, please contact John Gibb on 020 3818 9661, email researchteam@survation.com or visit our services page.

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