We have since updated our MRP prediction using our latest data from telephone polling – you can find our final estimates (including an updated dashboard) here.

GB Voting Intention

Labour: 37.6%

Conservative: 19.9%

Reform UK: 17.0%

Liberal Democrats: 12.1%

Green Party: 7.2%

Scottish National Party: 3.0%

Plaid Cymru: 0.6%

Other: 2.4%

Based on telephone interviews of 1,679 respondents living in Great Britain aged 18+. Fieldwork was conducted between the 1st and 3rd of July 2024. Tables are available to download here.

MRP Projection 3rd July

We have also updated our MRP model with the data from our final telephone poll. Seat estimates can be downloaded from here. Changes below vs. 2nd July 2024 update.

Probabilistic seat count:

Labour: 475 (-9)

Conservative: 64 (-)

Liberal Democrats: 60 (-1)

Scottish National Party: 13 (+3)

Reform UK: 13 (+6)

Green Party: 3 (-)

Plaid Cymru: 4 (+1)

Based on telephone and online interviews of 36,177 respondents living in Great Britain aged 18+. Fieldwork was conducted between the 15th June and 3rd July 2024.