Green shoots of a recovery for Labour in Scotland?
We have a new Scottish political poll out today on behalf of the Daily Record conducted via online panel 27th-30th of November. For comparison, i’ve added to the tables results from Scotland polling Survation conducted on the 14th of September.
| Westminster voting intention | 4/12 | 14/09 |
| Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party | 25% | 26% |
| Scottish Labour Party | 28% | 26% |
| Scottish Liberal Democrats | 7% | 7% |
| Scottish National Party (SNP) | 37% | 39% |
| Another party | 3% | 2% |
As you can see, there are not huge changes in voting intention since our September polling, however even small changes in Westminster voting intention mean that seats change hands in a new election due to the preponderance of marginal seats – in particular SNP/Labour and SNP/Conservative.
The effect on seats
If we input today’s published vote share figures into Baxter’s Scotland model, modelling today’s figures against the vote share the parties achieved at the General Election we can see the effect on seats at play.
Although the SNP has essentially the same vote share in today’s polling as at the GE and despite the Conservatives having the worst showing overall in this poll, Labour’s slightly improved fortunes vs. the election mean that the party would pick up 7 seats – from the SNP. SNP held Fife would go Lib Dem, with the SNP picking up just a single seat – Stirling – from the Conservatives.
| Party | 2017 Vote | 2017 Seats | Survation Polling 4/12 | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party | 28.6% | 13 | 25.1% | 0 | 1 | -1 | 12 |
| Scottish Labour Party | 27.1% | 7 | 28.3% | 7 | 0 | +7 | 14 |
| Scottish Liberal Democrats | 6.8% | 4 | 7.3% | 1 | 0 | +1 | 5 |
| UKIP | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| Scottish Green Party | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| Scottish National Party (SNP) | 36.9% | 35 | 36.5% | 1 | 8 | -7 | 28 |
Scottish Independence, Brexit and Holyrood.
Elsewhere in the polling, support for Scottish Independence remains firm, with yes on 47%. Scotland remains about as “remain” as it was at the time of the EU referendum.
If there was a referendum tomorrow with the question ‘Should Scotland be an Independent country?’, how would you vote?
| Indy Ref II | 4/12 | 13/09 |
| Yes | 47% | 46% |
| No | 53% | 54% |
| EU Referendum “tomorrow” | ||
| Leave | 32% | |
| Remain | 68% |
Scottish Parliament
| Holyrood constituency voting intention | 4/12 | 14/09 |
| Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party | 24% | 26% |
| Scottish Labour | 25% | 25% |
| Scottish Liberal Democrat | 8% | 7% |
| Scottish National Party (SNP) | 39% | 42% |
| Another party | 3% | 2% |
| Holyrood list voting intention | 4/12 | 14/09 |
| Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party | 22% | 21% |
| Scottish Labour | 25% | 25% |
| Scottish Liberal Democrat | 8% | 10% |
| Scottish National Party (SNP) | 33% | 31% |
| Scottish Green Party | 8% | 9% |
| UKIP | 3% | 3% |
| Another party | <1% | <1% |
Full data tables for voting intention are available here:
Sample size: 1,017 Fieldwork dates: 27th-30th November 2017 Method: People in Scotland aged 16+ interviewed online. Survation is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.
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