Brexit Bellwethers from our latest poll for the Mail on Sunday

Support for a referendum asking the British public if they would accept or reject any EU deal is at its highest recorded in a Survation poll, on 50%, up 4% from July 15th. This is against 34% who opposed a referendum on any deal, and 16% don’t know.

Other headline figures include:

• 57% percent of voters disapproved of the idea of the UK paying a £50 billion “divorce bill” to the EU, 20% approved, 18% neither approved nor disapproved and 5% don’t know
• 43% percent of voters thought the EU has been more successful in the Brexit negotiations than the UK, against 25% who said both sides have been equally successful, 17% don’t know and only 16% who said the UK has been more successful than the EU
• When asked how they thought Brexit will affect their personal finances, 38% said they will be no better or worse off, 35% said worse off, 14% said better off and 13% don’t know

Full tables can be found here.

The Brexit “Divorce Bill”

Our poll measured public opinion of the ongoing Brexit negotiations, as we approach 18 months since the vote to leave in June 2016’s EU referendum.

In particular, we tested public opinion towards the Brexit “divorce bill”, which some sources suggest has been agreed and which may be in the range of £50 billion.

In response to the question “to what extent do you approve or disapprove of the UK agreeing to pay £50bn to the EU as part of a Brexit “divorce bill””, 57% disapproved, 20% approved, 18% said neither and 5% don’t know.

When asked if they agreed with a list of positive and negative statements on the Brexit “divorce bill”, 61% agreed with: “the EU is demanding £50bn because they want to punish the UK for leaving”, 18% disagreed, 12% neither agreed nor disagreed and nine percent said don’t know.

By contrast, only 23% agreed with “the UK is paying £50bn to the EU because that is what the UK owes the EU”, 47% disagreed, 16% neither agreed nor disagreed and 14% don’t know.

Full list of statements:

47% said they are “not optimistic that the UK’s trade talks with the EU will result in a deal”, 39% are optimistic and 14% don’t know.

Voters said the EU has been more successful than the UK in the negotiations, with 43% choosing this option, against 25% who said both sides have been equally successful, 17% don’t know and 16% who said the UK has been more successful.

Brexit and Personal Economy

This survey was the third time since July that Survation has asked the public if they think they will be better or worse off as a result of Brexit.

As the time series chart shows, the largest proportion of respondents have consistently said they think Brexit will make them no better or worse off. 38% chose this option in our most recent poll.

Second most popular was “I will be worse off as a result of Brexit”, on 35% in our most recent poll, the highest this figure has been.

Only 14% agreed with the statement “I will be better off as a result of Brexit”, and 13% said don’t know.

Full tables are available here.

Survation interviewed 1,003 UK adults aged 18+ via online panel on the 30th November – 1st December 2017.

Survation is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.