As Pennsylvania’s voters head to the polls in the final hours of the 2024 U.S. Presidential election, a new Survation poll suggests a narrow lead for Vice President Kamala Harris over former President Donald Trump. Conducted between November 1st and 4th, the poll reveals that Harris currently holds a slight edge with 51% of intended votes compared to Trump’s 48%. While polling averages in Pennsylvania have shown a tied picture, Survation’s poll has Harris with a slight lead, based on a very slightly higher intention to turnout among those planning to vote on polling day, and consideration of those who have participated in early voting and what they told us.

Early voting is likely to exceed a quarter of all votes eventually cast in PA. Many more registered Democrats than registered Republicans request mail-in ballots here, and so Harris will begin the day with a Survation estimated 37 point head start, which will be quickly diminished by on the day voting which is more favoured by Republican voters in the state. Our data shows that early voting registered Republicans and registered Democrats voted in line with their party affiliations (92% and 91%), with little to no net switching observable between those groups. Early voting or voting intention among voters affiliated with minor parties or no party (currently 11% of all accepted mail ballots) however, favours Harris over Trump, which should help Harris on the margin.

Voting Patterns By Demographic Groups

Voting patterns display marked differences between men and women. Trump holds a notable lead among male voters (54% to 45%), while Harris leads by 14 points among female voters (56% to 42%). Harris enjoys higher favourability among women (+12) compared to men (-10), while Trump’s favourability is split, with women showing a net favourability of -16, contrasted by a positive +8 rating among men.

Harris commands strong support among non-white voters, leading 81% to 18% among Black voters and 64% to 31% among Hispanic voters. However, Trump holds a 52% to 48% lead among white voters. The divide in educational attainment is also stark. Harris leads among college graduates (55% to 42%), while Trump has a lead among voters without a college degree, particularly high school graduates (54% to 45%).

In Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate race, incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Casey Jr. has a stronger lead over his Republican challenger David McCormick, polling at 53% to McCormick’s 45%. Other candidates, including those from the Libertarian, Constitution, and Green parties, each hold around 1%.

With a slight lead and robust early voting support, Harris might appear poised for victory in Pennsylvania. However, with margins this narrow, the final result here will genuinely be decided on polling day itself and highly dependent on actual (not respondent declared) turnout.

Get the data

Survation conducted an online poll of 1,016 adults aged 18+ in Pennsylvania. Fieldwork was conducted between 1st – 4th November 2024. Full tables are available here. 

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