Volodymyr Zelenskyy arrived in the US yesterday to sign a draft resources trade deal, discuss ongoing peace negotiations, and address the future of US support for Ukraine under the second Trump administration. The subsequent meeting, which descended into chaos in the Oval Office, comes amid a period of frosty relations between the two leaders.

Just last week, Donald Trump referred to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as a “dictator without elections” while his administration engaged in negotiations with Russia over the ongoing conflict—talks from which Ukraine was excluded. During yesterday’s press call with Keir Starmer, Trump declined to repeat the remark, stating, “I can’t believe I said that.”

Trump has also claimed that Zelenskyy’s approval rating among Ukrainians had dropped to “4%”—a figure that lacks independent verification. He further criticised Zelenskyy for not holding elections during the war, despite the fact that elections are constitutionally prohibited under martial law, a measure introduced in response to the Russian invasion.

Nonetheless, the issue of Zelenskyy’s popularity remains significant. Critics argue that the suspension of elections may be politically motivated, suggesting that a vote could expose declining support or a growing desire for leadership change.

As recent polling data on Ukraine remains scarce—some cited surveys began fieldwork as far back as November 2024—we decided to take a closer look at the political climate, examining approval, trust, and attitudes toward both the war and prospects for peace.

First Round Presidential Voting Intention

First up – if Ukraine were to amend the law regarding running elections during wartime and run a Presidential election, this first-round hypothetical voting intention, including his 2019 election rival and former President Petro Poroshenko shows that Zelenskyy would very likely be elected to a second term. We’ve included the popular Ukrainian four-star general and diplomat Zaluzhnyi who is currently serving as Ambassador of Ukraine to the United Kingdom, who places a distant second. For reference, Zelensky took 31% of first round votes in 2019, so is +13 since then.