Keir Starmer is ahead of his rivals and likely to be victorious in the second round in a new poll of the Labour selectorate (party members, affiliate members and registered supporters) on behalf of LabourList. 

45% of respondents who are likely to vote ranked Keir Starmer as their first preference, followed by Rebecca Long Bailey who was ranked first by a third (34%) and Lisa Nandy was ranked first by 21%. Rebecca Long Bailey was ranked by 56% of respondents in last place. 

Given that Starmer is not over the 50% mark, in this poll, the preferences of Lisa Nandy’s supporters would be reallocated. In this scenario Sir Keir would win with 64% of the vote compared to Long Bailey’s 36%. 

When it comes to the race for the deputy leader position, Angela Rayner leads with 35% of the first preferences and Richard Burgon in second with 23% of the vote. Dr Rosena Allin-Khan and Ian Murray are close to each other with 17% and 14% of the first preference votes respectively. Dawn Butler is in last place with only 10% of the first preference votes. Richard Burgon has the highest percentage ranking him last (47%) followed by Ian Murray on 42%. 

Considering second preferences however, Angela Rayner looks set to reach the winning 50% threshold by the third round of voting. While Richard Burgon would receive a boost from the second preferences of those voters who had selected Dawn Butler, who looks to be eliminated early on, Angela Rayner’s popularity as a second preference with Ian Murray and Rosena Allin-Khan (and Richard Burgon) supporters is high enough to assure her victory.

Despite being in last place in the race for leader, Lisa Nandy is seen to have been the best performer in the hustings and televised debates, with 37% selecting her compared to 30% who selected favourite Keir Starmer and 24% for Rebecca Long Bailey.

The main issue or policy for respondents when it came to choosing who to vote for in the leadership contest was the candidate’s credibility as a potential Prime Minister, with a third selecting this option (34%). When it came to choosing who to vote for in the deputy contest, uniting the party was the main issue (selected by 26%).

Of the three contenders for the leadership position, Rebecca Long Bailey is seen to be the continuity candidate, with 76% of respondents saying that she would seek broadly the same political position for the Labour Party as the current Labour leadership. 79% said Keir Starmer was further to the centre and 76% said the same of Lisa Nandy.

There was limited support, however, for inviting Jeremy Corbyn to be in the shadow cabinet, with only 35% selecting this option compared to 54% who said Jeremy Corbyn should not be invited. When asked which MPs  should be the future Shadow Chancellor, Yvette Cooper proved the most popular with 22% of respondents selecting her, followed by Ed Milliband with 15% and Clive Lewis on 13%.

Survation surveyed 1,196 Labour members, affiliates and registered supporters between 21st and 24th February 2020 via LabourList’s email distribution database.

Data were weighted to the profile of the 2020 selectorate by age, sex, region, membership status and 2016 Labour Party leadership vote.

Full data tables and methodology can be viewed here.

Survation is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.