A new Survation poll for tomorrow’s Daily Mirror, conducted today & yesterday has Labour on 40%, their highest in a Survation poll since January 2019. The Conservatives, at 34% in today’s poll mark the lowest recorded in a Survation poll since Boris Johnson became leader in July 2019.

In terms of vote share, were these types of figures seen at the next General Election a Labour lead of this size would easily make Labour the largest party in the Commons with over 300 seats, albeit short of an overall majority.

The majority of the public, including a large proportion of Conservative voters, take a negative view of the Government’s various attempts at explaining the allegations of a Christmas party taking place in Downing Street last December while many parts of the country were forbidden to gather indoors for any reason.

Boris Johnson’s own net leadership ratings have fallen by 12 points since October, with a current net rating of -23 points, while Keir Starmer’s net ratings have risen 5 points in the same time period to -2 points.

Court Of Public Opinion Rules against The Government

• 66% of the public and significantly 60% of those who voted Conservative in 2019 said that Keir Starmer’s accusation  “the current Government believes there is one rule for them and another for everyone else” was closer to their view than the opposite.

• Despite various governments in the past being embroiled in sleaze allegations, 48%, believe the current Government has lower standards and principles than governments in the past. This includes 21% of Conservatives voters and 60% of Labour voters. 

• In terms of “cut through” 80% of the public told Survation they have followed the story to some degree

• Just 10% of the public believe the Government’s statement made day after day that  “there was no Christmas party” and only 15% believe the claim that  “no regulations were broken”. 

• A majority (66%) feel the matter deserves police investigation, including 58% of  those who voted Conservative in 2019, just 26% of the public believe this is not a matter for the police.

• 70% believe that the police need to explain why the alleged event at Number 10 would be deemed legal and permitted rather than simply dismissing investigating the allegations.
• 67% of the Public support legal sanctions such as fines for those found involved in organising or allowing unpermitted gatherings in government vs just 19% opposed, with 68% telling Survation that those involved in organising or allowing unpermitted gatherings should resign. 

• Only 17% believe the notion that as alleged incidents happened a year ago, the matter should not be investigated, 76% said that it should. 

• Only 22% felt that the government claiming any kind of exemption from the lockdown legislation was acceptable.

• Key to concerns, 42% of 2019 Conservative voters, similar to 47% of the general public, believe that the public are much less likely to follow COVID rules if they are broken by government officials

Further information 

Fieldwork Dates 8th – 9th of December 2021

Data Collection Method The survey was conducted via online interview. Invitations to complete surveys were sent out to members of the panel

Population Sampled Adults aged 18+ in the UK

Sample Size 1,178

Full details of questions asked and responses are in the linked data tables: