The latest Good Morning Britain tracker indicates that the Conservative Party is poised to receive its lowest share of the vote at a general election since 1906. Despite initial expectations the polls would tighten, Labour maintains a commanding 21-point lead.

The Conservatives have been unable to repair their fractured 2019 vote. The party is currently retaining just 53% of its 2019 voters while losing them to both the left and right. Labour is peeling away 14% of Conservative voters, but Reform UK is the most attractive destination for those who backed the Conservatives in 2019, with one in four intending to back Farage’s party. 

The sankey diagram below, made using data drawn from our polling for Best for Britain, shows just one in three Leave voters currently intend to vote for the Conservatives, with 28% supporting Labour and 27% Reform UK. This is a stark contrast to 2019, when approximately three-quarters of Leave voters backed the Conservatives.

Farage’s decision to lead Reform UK into the general election has exacerbated the Conservatives’ troubles. This week he leads the Prime Minister on favourability both nationally (+15 points) and among 2019 Conservative voters (+6 points). Sunak’s favourability among these voters stands at just +2,  whereas Keir Starmer enjoys a +40 rating among 2019 Labour voters. Leave voters, who were pivotal to the Conservative victory in 2019, also favour Farage (+12) to Sunak (-25).

Sunak has attempted to frame the election as a presidential-style choice between himself and Starmer. To the extent this has had any effect on voters, it has not been in the way the Conservatives intended. Starmer now leads Sunak by 17 points on the question of who would make the best Prime Minister – the largest gap we have ever recorded between the two. 

The news for the Conservatives is no better on the economy, as both Starmer and Reeves continue to lead their counterparts on economic trust. 

Despite Conservative claims that Labour’s policies will add £2,000 to individual tax bills, the public perceives Starmer as more honest when it comes to tax pledges.

Labour’s manifesto is what you might expect from a party that is 20 points ahead in the polls, and the Conservatives manifesto is what you might expect from a party that is 20 points behind. Nonetheless, we find Labour’s manifesto is seen as more credible than other parties. 

The Conservatives are in deep trouble. Far from the polls narrowing, the fundamentals actually look worse than they did at the beginning of the campaign. Labour lead the Conservatives on the NHS (+32), cost of living (+25), immigration (+12), and the economy (+10); Starmer leads Sunak on best PM (+17), economic trust (+6), and honesty on tax pledges (+10); while Reform UK are eating into the Conservative vote share from the right. With just over two weeks until polling day, there is little indication that things will improve.

Get the data

Survation conducted a telephone poll of 1,008 adults aged 18+ in the UK on behalf of Good Morning Britain. Fieldwork was conducted between 14th – 18th June 2024. Tables are available here. 

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