Survation has launched a new polling partnership with LabourList, which will provide regular insights into the views of Labour Party members. This polling series will track shifts in the opinion of members over time, offering a deeper understanding of their attitudes on policy, leadership, and the party’s electoral prospects.

Our first poll reveals a membership that remains supportive of key figures in the Cabinet but is increasingly divided over the party’s direction, the Prime Minister’s leadership, and the threats Labour faces from its political rivals.

Labour’s Most Popular Cabinet Ministers

Our first poll in this series reveals that Ed Miliband has emerged as the most liked member of the Labour cabinet among party members. The former Labour leader and current Energy Secretary leads with a NET favourability rating of +69%, despite the former leader facing criticism over the government’s decision to scale back green spending while supporting a new runway at Heathrow.

Miliband was closely followed by Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner, who achieved a NET favourability of +63 points. Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy, a former leadership contender, came in third with +39 points.

In contrast, Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s favourability among Labour members was significantly lower than that of many of his Cabinet colleagues. Starmer recorded a NET favourability rating of just +14 points. 

The Prime Minister does not appear to be energising the younger membership base. His support was weakest among 35 to 44-year-olds, with a rating of just +1%, while his strongest backing came from those aged 45 to 54, where he polled +25%. 

Labour Members Split on Party Direction

Our poll also reveals a striking division among Labour members regarding the party’s trajectory. While 40% believe that the party is heading in the right direction, a larger proportion (49%) feel that Labour is on the wrong track. Despite the party’s largest electoral success since 1997 just eight months ago, a significant level of dissatisfaction persists.This might make it difficult for the leadership to press ahead with its more controversial decisions on welfare spending and foreign aid. 

Despite these reservations, a majority of Labour members (52%) would prefer Keir Starmer to lead the party into the next general election in 2029. However, nearly one in three (31%) favour a change in leadership before then. Among those backing a new leader, Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham was the top choice (57%), while around one in five (22%) selected Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner as their preferred successor.

Starmer’s Leadership

Keir Starmer’s leadership continues to be viewed with a mix of approval and caution among Labour members. Despite winning 411 seats in last summer’s election, nearly half (49%) of the party’s membership believe that he has changed the party for the better, while 41% believe that Starmer has changed the party for the worse.

Additionally, less than half of respondents (47%) believe that he is a likeable figure, while 3 in 4 (76%) say that he is cautious rather than bold. Notwithstanding this, the PM’s leadership on the international stage has likely influenced his image as a strong (54%) and competent (66%) leader, while 56% see him as trustworthy, and 61% indicate that he is decisive. 

Reform Seen as Labour’s Greatest Electoral Threat

One of the most striking findings from this poll is the extent to which Labour members see Reform UK, rather than the Conservative Party, as the primary electoral threat. More than 70% of party members identified Reform as Labour’s biggest challenger, compared to just 16% who pointed to the Conservatives.

This signals an evolving political landscape in which Labour members do not see Kemi Badenoch’s party as a serious threat. Instead, concern appears to be growing about the ability of Nigel Farage’s movement to siphon votes from the right. 

With Reform UK positioning itself aggressively on issues such as immigration and net zero policies, Labour members seem to recognise the potential for the party to make gains in traditionally Labour-supporting areas that previously swung Conservative post-Brexit. If Reform continues to build momentum, Labour’s electoral strategy may need to factor in not just how to win over moderate voters, but also how to mitigate any rightward shifts in working-class constituencies. This task would be difficult given the higher numbers of 2024 Labour voters now likely to vote for the Lib Dems or Greens, which will require further balancing against the threat from the right.

The membership remains somewhat optimistic about the party’s prospects at the next general election given their recent performance in the polls, with the majority (67%) predicting either a small Labour majority, or a hung parliament with Labour forming the government, while only 6% believe that Labour would win a large majority.

Policy Priorities

Labour members remain firmly focused on bread-and-butter issues, with health (48%), the economy (46%), and the cost of living (42%) emerging as the top three concerns. The dominance of these issues underscores the weight members place on delivering tangible improvements in people’s lives.

Interestingly, despite heated debates within the party over welfare reform, only 6% of members ranked welfare benefits among their top issues. Instead, housing (37%) and defence and security (39%) feature more prominently, indicating a shift in what members see as the party’s most pressing responsibilities in government.

What’s Next?

As Labour navigates its time in government, our new polling series with LabourList will continue to monitor the evolving views of party members, providing a unique and consistent insight into their views. By tracking opinion over time, we’ll be able to identify key trends among members that shape the party’s direction and policy priorities. This partnership will offer valuable data on what members think about the big issues facing Labour and the country.

Future polling will examine how members’ views shift as the government continues to implement its agenda, offering a crucial barometer of the party’s internal sentiment. For Labour’s leadership, staying in tune with the priorities and concerns of the membership will be key to ensuring internal cohesion.

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Get the data

Survation conducted a poll of 2,022 Labour party members via LabourList’s database between 4th and 18th March 2025. Tables are available here.

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