Goodwill continues amongst swing Labour voters despite winter fuel payment and ongoing gift scandal

Despite the ongoing backlash against policies such as means-testing the winter fuel payment and negative press around the Prime Minister’s handling of gifts, recent Survation polling has shown that current voting intention has not dramatically changed from the General Election in July.

To understand the polling and to get under the skin of how voters are really feeling about the first 100 days of the Labour Government, Survation has gathered feedback from a carefully selected qualitative online panel of 30 voters.  Our panel are all living in 24 constituencies that Labour gained from the Conservatives or SNP in England, Scotland and Wales in 2024. 

Our panel was focused specifically on those swing voters who voted Labour in 2024 and had voted for another party in 2019 or who did not vote.  This included 11 who voted Conservative, 5 Lib Dem and 7 did not vote, with the remaining voting for a mix of the SNP, Plaid Cymru and the Brexit Party.  These swing voters are essential for Keir Starmer and the government to retain their base of support over the coming years and to secure a second term.  Our panel was conducted between 8th and 11th October. 

Verdict on the first 100 days 

For many of our swing Labour voters the first 100 days has been a game of two halves, the initial weeks of the new government provided optimism, particularly around the change in tone of government and the sense of immediate action on some of the unpopular hangovers from the last administration – the end of the Rwanda scheme, the end of the rail strikes, and the negotiations end of pay disputes with Junior Doctors.  Swift action on the summer riots was appreciated by many of our panel members as well as policy proposals for planning reforms, workers’ rights, Great British Energy bill and commitment for house building. 

However, there is no doubt that post the summer recess, the means testing of the winter fuel payment has been damaging to these new voters, particularly those who are older or who previously voted Conservative.  Our recent Survation polling shows the widening gulf between younger and older voters on the government’s performance.  Whilst not all our older panel members felt the government had performed poorly, for many the winter fuel payment policy has been a damaging blow that the government will need to work very hard to recover.  For younger voters, and those who voted Lib Dem or SNP in 2019, the winter payment and gift scandals have been deeply disappointing but have not yet translated into an irreversible decision to switch allegiances back to another party.  However, for many this has signified the end of the honeymoon ‘bump’ we saw in the polling at the end of the summer.  It’s now crucial that the government consolidates the support of this swing voter audience through clear policy messaging and a more positive sense of purpose on key issues such as housing and health. 

“The government arrived with a clear sense of policy and purpose. They handled the transition to government well and proved decisive when faced with the crisis of the riots over the summer. They have also delivered serious, substantial policies on e.g. Great British Energy, cancelling the Rwanda scheme, bringing in better protections for employees and tenants, paying public servants better and preventing more strikes. What’s disappointing is that these achievements have been overshadowed by some self-inflicted errors around personal donations, personnel conflicts and the winter fuel allowance” Male, 51, City of London and Westminster, Lib Dem 2019

“I did think the government got most of it right during the riots that occurred in the summer, with a crackdown on the rioters and increasing the sentences for said people. As said, I’m very pleased with the government’s position on clean energy, setting the target for being a clean superpower by 2030 and lifting the onshore wind ban. What I am somewhat upset about is the recent controversies with the government for example Sue Gray and the freebies that was on the news, and it doesn’t make it a good look on the current government.” Male, 24 years, St Austell and Newquay, Did not vote 2019

“Labour has got off to the worst possible start by immediately scrapping the winter fuel payment to older people, like me, and thereby alienating a massive section of society, while being mired in the type of sleaze over “gifts” that Keir Starmer was so hot on calling out while he was in opposition.” Male, 73, Morcombe and Lunsdale, Conservative 2019

“Very disappointed, I voted Labour after many years voting SNP, however the on-going saga of freebies not only for already well off politicians but also their wives is a very poor start when people have been longing for change in attitude.“ Male, 75 years, East Kilbride and Strathaven, SNP 2019

Labour’s expectation management through the campaign in the first months of government has set the mood music, with many swing voters accepting the view of economic hardship and that change will not happen overnight. However, given the gloomy outlook and negative press coverage our panel of swing voters are now looking for a shift to more positive messaging and action around key policy issues such as health, housing and the environment.

“Housing, health and the economy are obviously work in progress but the destruction they inherited is a real thing.” Male, 58, Bangor Aberconwy, Voted Plaid Cymru 2019

“Needs more on Health, benefits, taxing the super-rich, housing, resolving the Post Office Horizon scandals, Grenfell and Covid 19. Money is still being squeezed for people. Winter Fuel is an own goal.” Male, 69, Bangor Aberconwy, Voted Plaid Cymru 2019

“Agree with some of what they have talked about on Housing and on Health but can’t recall any policies or actions.” Male, 40, Edinburgh South West, Voted SNP in 2019, Did not vote 2019

The focus for our panel is clearly turning to the forthcoming budget, and when asked about tax rises, most of our swing voters would be in favour of tax rises aimed at the wealthy and super-rich. When asked specifically about changes to wealth taxation, most of our panel members were in support, but felt that the government was currently doing little to show its commitment asking those with the broadest shoulders to pay their share;

“We won’t know until we see the budget & removing winter fuel allowance, unfortunately gives the opposite message [to passing the burden on those with broadest shoulders]. I Would hope to see higher taxes for wealthiest including an increase in capital gains tax, removal of tax breaks clamp down on tax evasion & avoidance.” Female, 72 years, South Dorset Did not vote 2019

“So far, he has taken money from those that cannot afford it and so do not have the broadest shoulders. He is threatening vulnerable members of society and does not seem to research their lives before doing so. I feel he is unaware of the ordinary people and their struggles.” Female, 48 years, Colchester, Conservative 2019

Keir Starmer

On a more personal note, our panel members were asked to rate the Prime Minister and provide three words (of their own choosing) to describe Keir Starmer. Neutral and negative words outweighed positive (by approximately 2/1) amongst these swing Labour voters. The most frequently mentioned positive words were “intelligent” and “principled” whilst the most mentioned negative words were “untrustworthy” “naïve” “greedy” “incompetent” and “indecisive”. The negative sentiment was particularly driven by the recent gifts scandal, whilst the positive words were associated with the PM’s balanced approach and increasing confidence on the global stage which many pointed to as in terms of confidence in the Prime Minister.

“He’s done a good job overall. I feel very positive about the future. He understands that he can’t fix 14 years of Tory disaster overnight, or even this term of parliament and so has tried to set expectations. I get this but the messaging has been over-pessimistic. It is disappointing that his approval ratings have taken a dramatic hit and the honeymoon was over so quickly” Female, 65, Edinburgh North and Leith, Lib Dem 2019

“I think he has been disappointing. I hoped he would care about pensioners as well as ordinary people. I think the [public sector] pay rises are a good thing but not much else.” Female, 66, Leigh and Atherton, Conservative 2019

Rachel Reeves

When asked about the Chancellor Rachel Reeves, our panellist expressed a mixed perception of her performance with strong positive traits (particularly her determination) balanced against a variety of criticisms, again particularly directed around the winter fuel policy. 

The standout word for Reeves was “determined” – which was generally seen as a positive, as were “serious”, “honest”, “intelligent” and “confident” “calm” and “strong” on the negative side the most frequently expressed words were “scary” and “dishonest”. However, whilst the Chancellor’s determined streak was coming across to panel members, there was a much longer list of singular negative associations including “ruthless” “steely” “gloomy” and “austere” which could leave many with a sense of pessimism rather than optimism for better days ahead.

“Scrapping winter fuel payments was her first mistake and now she’s signalling more misery with tax rises coming to fill the mythical black hole which she is now busy creating with her own spending plans”. Male, 73 years, Morcome and Lunsdale, Conservative voter 2019

Overall, the mood of our panel was mixed, more were pessimistic than optimistic about the future, with the government’s continued focus on the struggle ahead leaving some of our swing voters ambivalent about the success of the government. Whilst the many concluded that it’s early days, it’s crucial that the Prime Minister and Chancellor shift in tone to bring these voters along before the good will runs out.

“I am not optimistic about the future. There are already problems in the government such as ministers accepting freebies and donations. I think he should tax the rich not take money from the poorer sectors. I would like to say to him that he [Keir Starmer] has not shown that he is the right leader yet. It is very early days and we will have to see what is in the budget. I think he should do more to show to us that he cares about doing what is right for the country.” Female, 66, Leigh and Atherton, Conservative 2019

About this research

For this research our qualitative panel was held online over 3 days between 8th-11th October allowing participants to join and share their views via text and video messaging at a time convenient to them.  Moderators gathered feedback in a closed environment where participants could not see each other’s posts, allowing for a more honest and individual response to questions. 

Participants were recruited from the following constituencies; Cities of London and Westminster, Darlington, Leeds North West, Glasgow North, Leigh and Atherton, Morcombe and Lunesdale, Edinburgh South West, Earley and Woodley, South Dorset, Edinburgh North and Leith, Penrith and Solway, Alloa and Grangemouth, Glasgow South West, St Austell and Newquay, East Kilbride and Strahaven, Bolton North East, Bangor Aberconwy, Spen Valley, Colchester, Midlothian, Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard, Isle of Wight West, Hamilton and Clyde Valley. 

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