In the first MRP analysis since Nigel Farage announced he would stand for election and resume the position of party leader, Reform UK are leading in seven seats and are currently placed second within 10 points of the leading candidate in six more. 

Labour are on track for a 262-seat majority, with the party currently leading in 456 seats while the Conservatives remain far behind on 72 seats. The Liberal Democrats are currently leading in 56 seats – just one fewer than their 2010 result. The SNP are currently ahead in 37 of the 57 seats in Scotland, while Reform are current favourites in seven, Plaid in two and the Greens are likely to hold Brighton Pavilion. 

Our analysis on behalf of Best for Britain is based on 42,269 online and telephone interviews, conducted between the 31st of May and the 13th of June.

Our probabilistic approach estimates the probability of each party winning each seat and aggregates them to give us an idea of how the election would play out. For example, if a party has a 50% chance of winning in 4 seats, we allocate 2 seats to them. 

This approach indicates that Labour is currently estimated to be the largest party in the next parliament with 443 seats, the Conservatives second with 83 seats, followed by the Liberal Democrats with 53 seats and the SNP with 34 seats. This model currently finds Plaid on two, while there is a possibility that Reform could win twelve seats. 

Given the rapidly changing electoral landscape, the next three weeks could significantly alter the make-up of the 2024 Parliament. Our analysis suggests that 138 seats can change hands with just a 2.5% swing to the second-placed party, underscoring the potential for shifts in the electoral landscape as we approach election day.

Reform Compound Conservative Losses

Since Farage’s announcement to take over as leader of Reform UK, we’ve seen a rise in their vote share in national polling, and now we are seeing how this can result in seat gains. Unsurprisingly, Reform are making significant gains in places where the Conservatives are losing the most, and are currently the leading party by vote share in seven seats. Reform are also currently performing better than the Conservatives in 59 seats.

As the Brexit Party did not stand in seats with Conservative incumbents in the 2019 election, some of the massive majorities that were won by the party are now crumbling with Reform challengers in 609 seats posing a significant threat to incumbent Tories hoping for reelection. 

While we see that Reform is performing better where the Conservatives are losing the most voters, the seats in which Reform is ahead of other parties have much smaller majorities compared to the ones the Conservatives won in 2019. On average, Reform is on average gaining around half of the voters that the Conservatives are losing where it matters most to them, but these gains are primarily occurring in constituencies where their current vote shares are much closer to the levels achieved by the Conservatives in 2019.

The Blue Wall

The Conservatives are set to hold onto just 13 seats out of 52 seats in the Blue Wall, Labour 20 and the Liberal Democrats - 19. Half of these seats are currently marginal and likely to be decided by less than 5% of the vote. 

Senior Conservative figures in the Blue Wall, including Jeremy Hunt, look set to lose their seats. 

Scotland

Labour appears set to regain a significant foothold in Scotland across the central belt, but the SNP’s vote has a very high floor. Our MRP analysis shows a weakened but strong SNP, who are poised to remain the largest party in Scotland. Yet many seats in Scotland are on a knife-edge.

Of the 57 seats north of the border, our estimates have 37 decided by a winning margin of fewer than 10 points and 17 decided by fewer than 5 points. These marginal contests are ones to track between now and polling day. How they break on 4th July will determine whether Labour or the SNP end up as the largest party in Scotland. 

Postal votes are already out and the election is less than three weeks away. Far from the polls narrowing, it is difficult to imagine the Conservative Party’s electoral prospects getting much worse. Farage’s return as leader has compounded the threat from the right, a resurgent Liberal Democrats are in place to take 45 seats from the Conservatives, and Labour are on course for a 262 seat majority.

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Methodology

Survation uses MRP (Multilevel Regression and Poststratification) modelling to provide accurate estimates of current voting intention in the 632 seats in Great Britain which will be contested in the General Election on July 4th. An explanation of how MRP works can be found here. 

Our model uses demographic information to estimate voting intention at constituency level, as well as data on past vote in the 2019 General Election. Among other demographic data, we account for the strength of each party at local level, updated with the results of the May 2024 local elections. This information allows us to make predictions based on elements of a person’s lifestyle, background, life experiences, and the environment in which they live, as well as the capacity of political parties to campaign locally. 

Survation moved to a full ballot-prompted methodology on May 30th and this approach is reflected in the most recent waves of sample, with the model taking into account time - giving more weight to recently collected data. Candidate options are updated daily as new selections come in and will be finalised once full candidate lists are available on June 7th. 

Win probabilities are reported for each party in each seat in the full results, as well as a low and high 95% credible interval for the average estimates. 

We have provided a guide to interpreting the results from our MRP here, and you can find out more about how MRP works here.

Survation used MRP during the 2019 General Election to correctly predict a large Conservative majority and call 94.3% of seats correctly. For more information, you can read this blog post by our partner Professor Chris Hanretty here.

Get the data

Survation conducted MRP analysis of 42,269 adults aged 18+ in Great Britain on their voting intentions. Fieldwork was conducted between 31st May - 13th June 2024. The full results are available to download here.

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If you are interested in commissioning MRP or to learn more about Survation’s research capabilities, please contact John Gibb on 020 3818 9661, email researchteam@survation.com or visit our services page.

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Survation. is an MRS company partner, a member of the British Polling Council and abides by their rules. To find out more about Survation’s services, and how you can conduct a telephone or online poll for your research needs, please visit our services page.