Fieldwork Dates – 29th – 31st January 2014
Population Sampled – All adults aged 16+ in Scotland
Sample Size – 1,010

What type of swing to “Yes” in the Scottish Independence Referendum might occur with the potential spectre of a Conservative Westminster majority?

In this poll for the Mail on Sunday 02/02/14, our initial referendum voting question shows a large current lead of 20 points for the “No” campaign against independence – 52% to 32% in line with other recent (online) polling.

However, if Scottish people are led to believe that the Conservatives will be in power after 2015, this lead drops, first down to 14 points and then all the way down to just 9 points if Scottish voters expect the Conservatives to be in power for many years – a significant halving of the gap.

Whilst not solving Alex Salmond’s problem of support “Yes” lagging behind “No” polls in itself, this is surely a messaging avenue to explore, particularly if the Conservative’s Westminster VI improves between now and the Independence referendum in September

Referendum Voting Intention – ‘Should Scotland be an independent country?’

Yes – 32%

No – 52%

Undecided – 16%

“No” has lead of 20 points

Now, imagine you knew the Conservative Party was expected to win a majority at the next UK General Election in 2015 and form the next UK government, would this affect how you would vote, or not, in the Scottish independence referendum this year?

[these %s show how people would then vote in the referendum]

NET: Yes – 35%

NET: No – 49%

NET: Undecided – 16%

“No” lead down to 14 points

 Now, imagine you knew the Conservative Party was expected to win a majority at the next UK General Election in 2015 and be in power in the UK for the next 15 years. Would this affect how you would vote, or not, in the Scottish independence referendum this year?

NET: Yes – 38%

NET: No – 47%

NET: Undecided – 16%

“No” lead down to 9 points – less than half of what it was in the original question

This poll also contains Westminster voting intention for Scotland (standard Survation weighting) and Holyrood constituency voting intention (weighted by demographics and likelihood to vote but no adjustment for DK/REF responses)

Westminster Voting Intention

Conservative – 16%

Labour – 38%

Liberal Democrat – 10%

SNP – 30%

Other – 6%

Holyrood Voting Intention

Conservative – 12%

Labour – 36%

Liberal Democrat – 9%

SNP – 38%

Other – 5%

Full data tables for this survey can be found here: