Since our last update on UK wide Westminster voting intention on 10th June, we have seen the Conservatives lose 2 by-elections after the resignation of Tory MPs following 2 separate scandals. Labour took Wakefield on 23rd June, and the Liberal Democrats won Tiverton and Honiton, with its first non-Tory MP since the creation of the seat in 1997.

While just one poll, Labour’s 43% showing would be the highest we’ve seen for the party since January this year, and while this is still an insufficient lead over the Conservatives on 35% to be assured of an overall majority were an election called, Labour would be comfortably the largest party.

While 83% of those who voted Labour at the 2019 General Election will still vote for the party, only 67% of former Conservative voters are staying loyal. 14% of past Conservative voters say they will now vote Labour, however just 2% of former Labour supporters back the Conservatives.  Past Conservative voters are more than twice as likely to say they are undecided (13%) about their current vote than past Labour voters (6%).  The lead that Labour assumed during the partygate initial period has proved a stable one throughout this year.

Boris Johnson’s net favourability rating has made new lows (-32%) while about as many voters approve as disapprove about Keir Starmer, which, while nothing to celebrate, puts him 30 points ahead of the PM on this measure.

Overall, the two main parties are doing moderately better than their party leaders. The Labour party has a net favourability rating of 2%, with Conservatives on -21%, compared to Boris Johnson’s -32%.

Get The Data

Data tables for this research can be found here. Survation conducted online polling of 1,071 adults in the United Kingdom on 27th June 2022.

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