Survation’s latest voting intention data paints a picture of political flux in the UK. Both Labour and the Conservatives have lost three percentage points since December, with Labour now at 27% and the Conservatives trailing at 22%. The primary beneficiary of this decline is Reform UK, which has gained four points to reach 24%, overtaking the Conservatives to enter second place.

Alongside Reform, other smaller parties are also capitalising on voter discontent. The Liberal Democrats sit on 13%, the Greens 8%, and the SNP  3%. Fewer than half the electorate currently intends to vote for one of the two main parties. This would represent a historic low—just six months after the previous historic low was set in the General Election. The electorate is fragmented, with disillusioned voters seeking alternatives beyond the two main parties.

Labour is struggling to hold onto its base, retaining just 77% of its voters from July. The party is losing 8% of its vote share to Reform UK, while 7% have moved to the Liberal Democrats and 4% to the Greens.

The Reform threat is more dangerous for the Conservatives. The Farage-led party is drawing nearly one in five (19%) of those who voted Conservative in July, up from 14% in December. The ability of smaller parties to pull support from both Labour and Conservative voters highlights the depth of public dissatisfaction with traditional party options.

This far ahead of an election, it is difficult to predict how these numbers might translate into seats. What is clear is that no party appears to be generating significant enthusiasm. Just 24% of those who do not currently intend to vote Labour would consider doing so, with comparable figures of 29% for the Conservatives and 26% for Reform UK. Strikingly, more than two-thirds of voters say they would not consider voting Labour—a stark finding for a party governing with a 174-seat majority.

The fragmentation on the right is stark: 36% of Reform voters would consider voting Conservative, while 37% of Conservative voters would consider backing Reform. This dynamic poses a significant challenge for the Conservatives as they attempt to unify their base.

Meanwhile, Labour faces pressure from progressive alternatives. Nearly half (46%) of Labour voters would consider voting for the Liberal Democrats, while 42% would contemplate voting Green. By contrast, just 24% would consider voting Reform UK, suggesting that while Labour is vulnerable, it cannot afford to focus solely on Reform. The floor might feel close but the ceiling is low for all parties. 

The question of who would make the best Prime Minister remains unresolved, with ‘Don’t know’ still leading both Keir Starmer and Kemi Badenoch. Starmer’s net approval rating stands at -25, while Badenoch, at -4, may be disappointed to find herself trailing an undefined preference. A third of the electorate still lacks a clear impression of the Conservative leader, who needs to establish a presence.

The Conservatives tarnished their reputation for economic competence in the last Parliament, and Labour strategists attempted to brand this onto the minds of voters in the immediate aftermath of the election. Yet with consumer confidence through the floor and scepticism about its growth strategy, the Government has pivoted to centralising growth in all its communications. Despite this, Starmer now trails Badenoch by three points on economic trust—a reversal from his consistent lead since July 2023. Even more striking, Chancellor Rachel Reeves, who had held an advantage over her Conservative counterparts since November 2022, now finds herself trailing Mel Stride by four points. This marks a dramatic shift, considering she led former Chancellor Jeremy Hunt by 12 points when the election was called.

Confidence in the Government to manage the economy remains low, with only immigration and asylum ranking as issues where public faith is even weaker. When comparing economic confidence in Badenoch and Starmer, the Conservative leader is at -10%, while Starmer fares worse at -25%.

Reform UK voters stand apart with their heightened concern over immigration and their overall lack of trust in the Government’s ability to deliver on any issue. While Nigel Farage performs well on immigration, his economic credibility is also in question, with a net rating of -16%.

With 15 years of anaemic growth and stagnant living standards, the public's pessimism on the economy is understandable. Labour will need to demonstrate tangible progress on economic growth if it hopes to rebuild confidence in the Government’s ability to deliver. While Rachel Reeves has outlined policies aimed at addressing these concerns, the challenge remains: voters must not only see improvement but also attribute it directly to Government action. Without this, disillusionment is likely to persist, leaving the political landscape as uncertain as ever.

Get the data

Survation conducted an online poll of 2,010 adults aged 18+ in the UK on their voting intentions. Fieldwork was conducted between 28th-29th January 2025. Tables are available here.

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