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Reform UK Records Highest Support Ever in a Scottish Poll

With just over a year until the next Holyrood election, Survation’s latest polling in Scotland, conducted on behalf of communications firm Quantum Communications, records the highest-ever share for Reform UK in a Scottish poll. Nigel Farage’s party has overtaken the Scottish Conservatives to claim third place in Holyrood constituency voting intentions.

 

The poll finds that were an election held today, Reform UK would win 17% of the constituency vote, 5% ahead of the Conservatives, and 16% of the Regional list vote, 3% ahead of the conservatives.

 

Constituency vote share:

SNP: 34% (-1)
Labour: 23% (+1)
Reform UK: 17% (+4)
Conservatives: 12% (-2)
Liberal Democrats: 8% (n/c)
Green: 4% (-2)
Alba: 1% (n/c)

Regional list vote share:

SNP: 29% (-2)
Labour: 20% (-1)
Reform UK: 16% (+3)
Conservatives: 13% (-1)
Liberal Democrats: 9% (-1)
Greens: 8% (-1)
Alba: 3% (+1)

(Changes vs January 2025)

 

 

This represents a 4% increase in Reform’s vote share in Scottish voting intention compared to Survation’s previous Holyrood poll conducted in January, and is the party’s highest level of support ever recorded in any Scottish voting intention poll.

 

This surge in support comes in spite of recent party in-fighting, continuing to draw support from voters who did not back them in the general election last summer.

Nearly 4 in every 10 of those who voted for the Scottish Conservatives in the 2021 Holyrood election would now back Reform UK, while the party is drawing even levels of support from all other major parties (10% from the SNP, 12% from Labour and 8% from the Liberal Democrats).

Despite Reform UK’s rise, the broader electoral landscape remains largely stable, with the SNP maintaining an 11-point lead over Labour, marking a recovery from their polling lows from a year ago. While Reform’s gains have primarily come at the expense of the Scottish Conservatives, their ability to pull support from across the political spectrum suggests they could further fragment the anti-Independence vote, complicating Labour’s path to closing the gap with the SNP.

 

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GET THE DATA.

Survation conducted an online poll of 1012 adults aged 16+ in the Scotland. Fieldwork was conducted between 6-13 March 2025. Tables are available here.

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Authors

Tom Clifford

Tom has worked as Research Executive at Survation since September 2022. Prior to joining Survation he obtained a BA in Politics and International Relations from the University of Essex, where he conducted research for Essex County Council.

Vasil Lazarov

Vasil joined Survation's team in November 2022. His interests are in polarisation, values, and cultural issues. Prior to Survation he studied International Relations before completing a Master's in International Security. He is currently a PhD candidate in Political Science at Royal Holloway University of London. You can reach him on Twitter: @VasilSurvation

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Published: 19/03/25

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