The next Senedd election is still over a year away, but new polling suggests the political landscape in Wales could be on the brink of a dramatic shift. The election, due in May 2026, will be the first held under a new proportional representation system, with 96 Members of the Senedd elected across 16 six-member constituencies. The change gives every voter aged 16 and over a single vote. If current trends hold, it will end Labour’s dominance and usher in a new era of coalition politics.

Labour have governed Wales since devolution began, and Eluned Morgan now serves as the party’s first female First Minister. But the party’s current polling position would see them fall well short of a majority. Our latest data puts Labour on 27% – down 13 points from their 2021 constituency vote result.

Labour’s voter retention is weak. Fewer than two-thirds of 2024 Labour voters say they would back the party in a Senedd election, with Plaid Cymru (16%) picking up most of the defectors. Just 67% of those who backed Labour in 2021 say they would do so again; only the Conservatives are retaining fewer of their 2021 voters.

With this level of support, Labour would remain the largest party, but would be well short of a majority and reliant on either minority rule or a coalition. Any deal with Plaid would be far more balanced than the previous co-operation agreement, which collapsed last year following controversy around donations and stalled reforms.

The biggest story is the rise of Reform UK. The party now polls 24%, a 22-point jump from the Brexit Party’s performance in 2019. That puts them level with Plaid and firmly ahead of the Conservatives, who collapse to just 15%, amounting to an 11 point decline.

This would make Reform the joint-second largest party in Wales. Their support is concentrated in older, non-graduate voters. The party’s strongest foothold is in South Wales, where they placed second in 13Westminster constituencies in July. They are pulling in 22% of 2024 Conservative voters, but also 9% of Labour’s. Crucially, Reform are winning twice as many Leave voters as the Conservatives, while Labour and Plaid are splitting the Remain vote while retaining a modest appeal to Leavers (17% and 18%, respectively). Effectively, Reform is eating the 2019 Conservative Party’s lunch.

Plaid Cymru sit at 24%, with excellent voter retention (96%) and strong support in North, Mid, and West Wales. Their challenge is expanding beyond their base. While they outperform Labour among younger voters and those who voted Remain, they trail Labour in the south and Reform among older, non-university-educated voters.

Plaid’s historic dual performance – strong in devolved elections, weaker in Westminster – remains intact. Despite polling 24% for the Senedd, they drop to 18% in Westminster voting intention, with a quarter of their devolved voters opting for other parties in UK-wide elections.

Labour’s lead in Westminster voting intention has narrowed sharply, with their vote down eight points to 29%, and Reform rise into second on 25%, up from 17% in the general election. The Conservatives fall back slightly to 15%, while Plaid gain three points and the Lib Dems and Greens hold steady from their July performance.

While Labour remains in the lead, they are only retaining 72% of their Westminster vote, and their lead over Reform has shrunk from nearly 19 points to just four. Reform’s momentum is significant.

The cost of living (60%) and the NHS (58%) dominate the public agenda. Immigration (34%) remains a key concern, but its salience is largely confined to the political right.

Among those planning to vote Reform in 2026, 53% say immigration is their number one issue – making them outliers. Reform voters are 28% more likely than Conservatives, 53% more likely than Labour, and 40% more likely than Plaid voters to name it as a top concern.

For the majority of voters, though, bread-and-butter issues remain paramount. The parties seen as most credible on the NHS and cost of living are likely to benefit.

The Senedd is viewed more positively than Westminster, with a net favourability of –6% compared to –28% for the UK Government. While both score poorly, the UK Government performs significantly worse, particularly among younger and opposition voters.

No major party leader is popular in Wales. Starmer, Badenoch, and Farage all have net favourability in negative territory, with Saville Roberts and Ed Davey polling close to zero – helped more by low recognition than strong support. Eluned Morgan polls better than Starmer (–1%), but the task of defending an incumbent Labour government will be difficult.

The public are broadly dissatisfied with the Welsh Government’s performance, particularly on health and social care, where net dissatisfaction is highest – a risk for Labour given the issue’s salience.Only a minority of voters expect improvements in key devolved areas.

Labour remains on course to be the largest party in 2026, but well short of an outright majority. Their support is eroding across all demographics, and the collapse of their co-operation deal with Plaid leaves them politically exposed. Plaid are stable but capped. Reform, by contrast, are on the brink of a historic breakthrough, matching Plaid in vote share and overtaking the Conservatives. The party looks set to become a serious force in Welsh politics. Under the new electoral system, fragmentation matters and formal coalitions could be the new normal.

Get the data

Survation conducted an online poll of 1,027 adults aged 16+ in Wales. Fieldwork was conducted between 10th March – 3rd April 2025. Tables are available here.

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