• Should Boris Johnson’s Triumph in the Face of Impunity Lead Him To Number 10?
• What policy changes could make the Conservative party more popular?
• Despite being behind David Cameron on many of the traditional measure of Prime Minister suitability, Boris is still desired by the Conservative base.
• Who came off best and worst from the local elections and is Tony Blair a welcome comeback?
• The Mail on Sunday’s article is here;

 Cameron Succession?

Local Elections?

Who do you think has gained the most from the outcome of the local elections this week? Base: All respondents: 70% Ed Miliband, 6% David Cameron, 1% Nick Clegg *(83% of Labour 2010 voters say Miliband – a morale boost).

Who do you think has lost the most from the outcome of the local elections this week? Base: All respondents: Nick Clegg 44% David Cameron 32% ,  Ed Miliband 6%  Don’t know 17%. *(56% of Conservative 2010 voters say Nick Clegg, 27% David Cameron)

A Blair comeback?

Tony Blair has recently expressed an interest in re-engaging with British politics. Would you be more or less likely to vote Labour in a General Election if Tony Blair was Labour leader rather than Ed Miliband? Base: All respondents: Net More likely 24% Net Less likely 40% Neither more nor less 37% (Labour 2010 voters Net more likely 40%, Net less likely 21%.  Neither more nor less 40%)

Boris views vs Cameron Views

Who do you think is the more likeable politician? Base: All respondents: Boris Johnson 55%, David Cameron 25%. Don’t know 25%. *Men find Boris Johnson more likeable than women (61% to 21%) Women find  David Cameron about as as likeable in comparison than men (Men 21%, Women 20%). Women like Boris Johnson less than Men (Men 61%, Women 48%) with the difference that women “Don’t know” more about Boris Johnson.  The very young 18-24s (62% to 17%) and the older 65+ group (64% to 18%) like Boris the most over David Cameron.

Who do you think is more “true to Conservative values” Base: All respondents: 37% David Cameron , 32% Boris Johnson  (a tight one this, with regional differences) *CON 2010 voters 49% DC, 38% BJ

 Who do you think has the best leadership qualities? Base: All respondents: 44% DC, 23% BJ

Who do you think is more in touch with ordinary people? Base: All respondents: 51% BJ, 15% DC

Who do you think is best at taking tough decisions? Base: All respondents: 47% DC, 21% BJ *CON 2010 voters 66% DC, 21% BJ)

Who do you think would be most likely to repay a fiver? Base: All respondents: 35% DC, 34% BJ*Generally the younger you are the more  Johnson is trusted e.g. 18-24s are 44% BJ, 28% DC.

Who do you think would be most likely to drag us out of recession? Base: All respondents: 39% DC, 18% BJ *CON 2010 voters 66% DC, 16% BJ

Who do you think is the most intelligent? Base: All respondents: 35% BJ, 35% DC (BJ just ahead, same on rounding) *Everyone over 35 believes Boris Johnson is more intelligent than DC, perhaps they are more likely to know he was a scholarship entry at Eton?

 Who do you think is the most charming? – Base: All respondents: BJ 49%, DC, 28%

 Who would you prefer to lead the country in wartime? – All respondents: DC 36%, BJ 27%

Who do you think would be a better UK Prime Minister? Base: All respondents: DC 38%, BJ 24% *CON 2010 voters 60% DC, 21% BJ

Who do you think is the most attractive? Base: All female respondents: DC 45%, BJ 17%

 Who would you rather have dinner with? Base: All female respondents: 48% BJ, 26% DC

Who would you rather go out for a drink with? Base: All male respondents: 69% BJ, 11% DC *only 3.7% of Men aged 55-64 opted for DC, 78% preferring to drink with Johnson

 Who would you most trust to take your partner out to dinner? Base: All male respondents: DC 49%, BJ 22%

Which of the following statements is closest to your opinion?

Boris may be entertaining but lacks the serious qualities needed to be Prime Minister – 47%

Boris may be entertaining but has also shown as London Mayor the serious qualities needed to be Prime Minister – 36% *2010 CONS are more split – “Not serious” – 46% “Serious” – 44%

Would you be more or less likely to vote Conservative if Boris Johnson was leader of the Conservative Party? Base: All respondents: Net More Likely 22%, Net Less Likely 24% *2010 CON voters Net More Likely 31%, Net Less Likely 14%

Conservative Policies?

Would you be more likely or less likely to support the Conservative Party if the government implemented each of the following policies? –

• Tighter restrictions on immigration (General  “more” agreement across parties) Base: All respondents: 56% More, 11% Less. *2010 CON voters 76% More 2% Less

• Withdrawing from the European Convention on Human Rights to make it easier to deport suspected terrorists: Base: All respondents: 55% More, 17% Less *2010 CON voters 77% More 6% Less. (other parties more split)

• Longer prison sentences for convicted criminals: Base: All respondents:  57% More, 9% Less *2010 CON voters 72% More, 3% Less. (General cross party support for this)

• Legalising gay marriage: Base: All respondents: More 25%, Less 21%. 54% Neither. *2010 CON voters More 19% Less 28%, 54% Neither.

• Reversing the budget decision to scrap the higher age-related income tax allowance for pensioners: Base: All respondents: 38% More, 10% Less, 52% Neither. *2010 Labour supporters 42% more, 9% Less. *2010 Lib Dem supporters 41% More, 9% Less.

• Reversing the budget decision to remove the VAT exemption for hot baked pastries: Base: All respondents: 31% More, 10% Less, 59% Neither.

• Reversing the budget decision to cap the amount of tax relief claimable on charitable donations: Base: All respondents: 31% More, 10% Less

•  Reversing the budget decision to reduce the top rate of income tax from 50p to 45p Base: All respondents: 37% More, 14% Less, *CON 2010 voters 31% More 20% Less

•  An in/out referendum on the UK’s membership of the European Union. Base: All respondents: 42% More, 15% Less (CON 2010 voters 62% More, 5% Less)

•  More cuts in welfare benefits, such as capping what any family can receive at £26,000 Base: All respondents: More 43%, Less 22% (CON 2010 voters More 66%, Less 9%)

• Slowing down the current pace of public spending cuts and deficit reduction Base: All respondents: 41% More, 16% Less. *CON 2010 voters 36% More 25% Less

Survation interviewed 530 people online on May 4th. Data were weighted to be representative of the UK public. Full data tables can be viewed here;

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