Thursday, 20th January 2022

MRP analysis on voting behaviour and standards previously conducted on behalf of 38 Degrees show the political context of Christian Wakeford’s defection in Bury South. 

Our most recent MRP update indicated Labour’s vote share estimate in Bury South is 52% (+9 since GE 2019) with the party enjoying a 16 point lead* over the Conservatives on 35% (-8).

The majority of Christian Wakeford’s Bury South constituents have a negative view of the standards and principles upheld by the Conservative Government.

The North West as a region rates the Government the lowest of any English region in terms of upholding Nolan principles and standards.

Labour leads the Conservatives in the North West by 22 points LAB 53% (+6), CON 30% (-8) LD 6% (-1) GRE 5% (+2) AP 6% (-) (Changes vs 2019 GE)

Data in the research derived from 9,602 interviews conducted online by Survation and analysed by Professor Chris Hanretty of Royal Holloway, University of London.

Current political thinking in the Bury South constituency and the North West of England.

Survation is continuously tracking political attitudes on behalf of 38 Degrees, and in conjunction with Professor Chris Hanretty of Royal Holloway, University of London, produce estimates of opinion down to region and constituency level.

Given yesterday’s defection of Conservative Bury South MP Christian Wakeford we would like to highlight that we do have a reliable indication of current political thinking in the Bury South constituency and the North West of England.

Professor Chris Hanretty and Survation’s 2019 MRP model predicted 94.3% of Westminster seats, the most accurate forecast using the technique ever conducted.

MRP derived current voting Intention in Bury South, changes vs GE 2019 – 16 point* Labour Lead 

*unrounded comparison

North West Voting Intention

The voting data for the North West places the Bury South numbers in a broader context. Our current vote share estimates for the North West indicates the Conservatives are -8 points since GE 2019 – in line with their decline in Bury South. Labour would continue as the dominant party in the North West with a significantly larger lead (22 points) over the Conservative than in GE 2019 (9 point lead).

MRP derived current voting Intention in the North West, changes vs GE 2019 – 22 point Labour Lead.

Perception of Government on Nolan Principles – Bury South, North West.

In addition to voting intention, this research asked the public to judge the government’s behaviour using the 7 Nolan principles for standards in public office as a basis for the questions. [1] The Seven Principles of Public Life (also known as the Nolan Principles) apply to anyone who works as a public office-holder, including those in government. They are selflessness, integrity, openness, objectivity, accountability, honesty and leadership. The government scored poorly on all of the standards mentioned. [2]

A perfect score in terms of respondent who believed the government upheld Nolan principles to the highest degree =1

Any score below 0.5 indicates that overall the respondent felt that the Government would be less likely to uphold Nolan principles than more likely

The current perception in Bury South of the government’s upholding of the Nolan Principles is that voters believe the government is quite unlikely to uphold Nolan principles, with a score of 0.32 out of a possible 1. 

The North West as a region rates the Government the lowest of any English region in terms of upholding Nolan principles and standards.

Further Notes

[1] The Nolan Principles include commitments on selflessness, honesty, openness, leadership, and accountability and they apply to anyone who works as a public office-holder including elected politicians. 

[2] Using a statistical technique called Multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) Survation are able to use the large collected dataset from the polling to ​​produce estimates of opinion and attitudes for small defined geographic areas – in this case, Westminster constituencies. They combine this with the polling data with ONS and census data on demographic characteristics. https://www.survation.com/what-is-mrp/

The survey asked the public to judge the government’s behaviour using the 7 Nolan principles for standards in public office as a basis for the questions. 

When asked about “The current government” Of the following (7) principles, do you think the organisation or person mentioned, upholds these principles, meaning it keeps or maintains these principles? 

[3] You can find Westminster constituency maps breaking down the results of our MRP research by 2019 winner, projected winner and seat gains here: https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/8194685/ and by trust in government to uphold Nolan principles here: https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/8194887/

About MRP Analysis

Using a statistical technique called Multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) we are able to use the large collected dataset from the polling to ​​produce estimates of opinion and attitudes for small defined geographic areas – in this case, Westminster constituencies. We combine what we learn from the polling data with ONS and census data on demographic characteristics.

 The extent to which individual constituencies believe the current government is upholding the Nolan principles of selflessness, integrity, openness, objectivity, accountability, honesty and leadership can be estimated.

More about MRP: https://www.survation.com/what-is-mrp/

Analysis based on 9,602 interviews conducted online to December 11th 2021

The full data set, and workbook behind these figures can be found here: 

Constituency-Vote-Share-Nolan-Cost-of-Living (3)