Our first MRP of the 2024 general election shows that if the election were to take place today, Labour are on course to win a historic majority of 324 seats which would be the largest ever majority in modern British politics. 

The MRP analysis is based on online and telephone collected interviews of 30,044 people undertaken by Survation on behalf of Best for Britain with fieldwork carried out between 22nd May- 2nd June 2024.

Survation moved to a full ballot-prompted methodology on May 30th and this approach is reflected in the most recent waves of sample, with the model taking into account time – giving more weight to recently collected data.

Our probabilistic approach estimates the probability of each party winning each seat and aggregates them to give us an idea of how the election would play out. For example, if a party has a 50% chance of winning in 4 seats, we allocate 2 seats to them. This approach indicates that Labour is currently estimated to be the largest party in the next parliament with 487 seats, the Conservatives second with 71 seats, followed by the Liberal Democrats with 43 seats and the SNP with 26 seats. This model currently finds Plaid on two to three seats, while there is a possibility that Reform could win three. 

Many of these seats are direct contests between Labour and the Conservatives. While Labour is currently leading in 505 seats in terms of our average estimated vote share, the Conservatives fall close second within 5% of the Labour vote in 50 of those, while they come second within 10% of Labour’s vote share in a further 55 of those.  Many seats remain in play, and we estimate that 126 seats would be decided by a margin of 5% or less if the election tomorrow. 

The implied national vote share from the MRP model placed Labour on 43.2%, Conservatives on 24.3%, Lib Dems on 10.4%, Reform on 11.4% and the Green Party on 4.2%. The SNP would receive 3.3% of the vote, and Plaid 0.6% while other parties would receive a combined vote share of 2.6%.

While Reform does not currently lead any other parties in terms of any single constituency vote share, the model estimates that they have a one in four chance of winning Gainsborough and North West Norfolk, and a one in five chance of winning Clacton. While these estimates do not take into account Farage’s candidacy in Clacton, our constituency poll conducted in January showed that if he stood in the election, he would overtake the Conservative candidate Giles Watling by 10%.

The Liberal Democrats are likely to make significant gains across the South East and South West, where they could overturn 34% strong Conservative majorities in seats such as Chesham and Amersham. With the lowering support for the Scottish National Party, the Lib Dems are also on track to gain two further seats in Scotland - North East Fife and Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross where the SNP held very small majorities in 2019. 

The Liberal Democrats are also currently placed second in 15 seats, out of which the Conservatives are currently ahead in six and Labour in nine. This means that they have a 42% chance of winning in Harpenden, 39% chance in Mid Dunbartonshire, 38% chance in Sutton and Cheam, and a 35% chance in Hazel Grove. 

Out of the seats where the Conservatives are currently in the lead, the Lib Dems have a chance in all of the six seats, while tactical voting may prove pivotal for Theresa May’s old seat of Maidenhead where the Tories are only three points ahead of both the Lib Dems and Labour.

While the model does not currently estimate seat wins for the Green Party, the high end of our vote share estimates shows that they could get as much as 40% of the vote in Brighton Pavillion and 30% in Bristol Central. 

The Scottish National Party would remain the largest party in Scotland, winning an estimated 26 seats. However their dominance in Scotland would be challenged by a resurgent Labour Party. We estimate Labour is currently leading in 24 seats - 19 of which are notionally held by the SNP. The Liberal Democrats currently lead in four seats and the Conservatives in three. 

With exactly one month until polling day, the Conservatives have an immense deficit to overcome. Labour remains far ahead in national level polling which, as this analysis shows, could translate into the worst ever defeat that the Conservative party has ever seen. Given current polling averages placing Labour 21 points ahead and with no clear signs of narrowing, the Conservatives potentially face an extinction-level event. 

— 

Methodology

Survation uses MRP (Multilevel Regression and Poststratification) modelling to provide accurate estimates of current voting intention in the 632 seats in Great Britain which will be contested in the General Election on July 4th. An explanation of how MRP works can be found here. 

Our model uses demographic information to estimate voting intention at constituency level, as well as data on past vote in the 2019 General Election. Among other demographic data, we account for the strength of each party at local level, updated with the results of the May 2024 local elections. This information allows us to make predictions based on elements of a person’s lifestyle, background, life experiences, and the environment in which they live, as well as the capacity of political parties to campaign locally. 

Survation moved to a full ballot-prompted methodology on May 30th and this approach is reflected in the most recent waves of sample, with the model taking into account time - giving more weight to recently collected data. Candidate options are updated daily as new selections come in and will be finalised once full candidate lists are available on June 7th. 

Win probabilities are reported for each party in each seat in the full results, as well as a low and high 95% credible interval for the average estimates. 

We have provided a guide to interpreting the results from our MRP here, and you can find out more about how MRP works here.

Survation used MRP during the 2019 General Election to correctly predict a large Conservative majority and call 94.3% of seats correctly. For more information, you can read this blog post by our partner Professor Chris Hanretty here.

Get the data

Survation conducted MRP analysis of 30,044 adults aged 18+ in Great Britain on their voting intentions. Fieldwork was conducted between 22nd May - 2nd June 2024. The full results are available to download here.

________________________________________

If you are interested in commissioning MRP or to learn more about Survation’s research capabilities, please contact John Gibb on 020 3818 9661, email researchteam@survation.com or visit our services page.

For press enquiries, please call 0203 818 9661 or email media@survation.com

Survation. is an MRS company partner, a member of the British Polling Council and abides by their rules. To find out more about Survation’s services, and how you can conduct a telephone or online poll for your research needs, please visit our services page.