Survation’s latest MRP shows Labour are on course for a 290 seat majority. Our probabilistic approach estimates Labour will win 470 seats – far surpassing its performance in 1997. The Conservatives are projected to win just 85 seats, while the Liberal Democrats would become the third largest party with 56 seats, overtaking the SNP who are projected 12 seats. Among the smaller parties, this model currently finds Plaid on three seats, the Greens on two seats, and Reform UK on four seats. 

Our method uses probabilities to estimate each party’s chances of winning individual seats, then combines these estimates to project the overall election outcome. For instance, if a party has a 50% chance of winning in four different seats, we would assign them an expected total of two seats.

Our analysis is based on 23,364 interviews conducted between the 15th – 27th of June 2024.

The implied national vote share from the MRP model placed Labour on 41.9%, Conservatives on 24.5%, Lib Dems on 11.3%, Reform on 11% and the Green Party on 4.9%. The SNP would receive 2.4% of the vote, and Plaid 0.6%, while other parties would receive a combined vote share of 3.3%.

One third of seats are currently decided by fewer than 10 points, and 132 are decided by fewer than 5 points. In these seats, Labour leads in 65, the Conservatives in 47, and the Liberal Democrats in 10. Very small swings between now and the 4th July could have a dramatic influence on each party’s seat count.

The most significant difference between this MRP update and our previous projection is that it shows Labour are now on course to become the largest party in Scotland. In 2019, Labour lost six seats to the SNP and were reduced to just one MP in Scotland. They are now on course to win 37 seats, and all but one are currently held by the SNP. Labour’s strength is most pronounced in the Central Belt, its historic stronghold. The difficulty for the SNP is that its support is much more evenly spread geographically. Nonetheless, there are still 18 seats in Scotland with a current winning margin below 10 points, and the SNP are either leading or second in 17 of these contests.

With just six days until polling day, this projection shows the campaign has done little to change the eventual result. Even if the majority of marginals broke in the Conservatives’ favour next Thursday, Labour would still win a substantial majority. Yet a week is a long time in politics, and Survation’s final MRP projection will be published on Tuesday, followed by our final call on Wednesday.

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Methodology

Survation uses MRP (Multilevel Regression and Poststratification) modelling to provide accurate estimates of current voting intention in the 632 seats in Great Britain which will be contested in the General Election on July 4th. An explanation of how MRP works can be found here. 

Our model uses demographic information to estimate voting intention at constituency level, as well as data on past vote in the 2019 General Election. Among other demographic data, we account for the strength of each party at local level, updated with the results of the May 2024 local elections. This information allows us to make predictions based on elements of a person’s lifestyle, background, life experiences, and the environment in which they live, as well as the capacity of political parties to campaign locally. 

Survation uses a full ballot-prompted methodology.

Win probabilities are reported for each party in each seat in the full results, as well as a low and high 95% credible interval for the average estimates. 

We have provided a guide to interpreting the results from our MRP here, and you can find out more about how MRP works here.

Survation used MRP during the 2019 General Election to correctly predict a large Conservative majority and call 94.3% of seats correctly. For more information, you can read this blog post by our partner Professor Chris Hanretty here.

Get the data

Survation conducted MRP analysis of 23,364 adults aged 18+ in Great Britain on their voting intentions. Fieldwork was conducted between 15th - 27th June 2024. The full results are available to download here.

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If you are interested in commissioning MRP or to learn more about Survation’s research capabilities, please contact John Gibb on 020 3818 9661, email researchteam@survation.com or visit our services page.

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Survation. is an MRS company partner, a member of the British Polling Council and abides by their rules. To find out more about Survation’s services, and how you can conduct a telephone or online poll for your research needs, please visit our services page.