A recent poll conducted by Survation for The Daily Telegraph has revealed that the Conservatives could lose their effective majority in the London Assembly. The poll also found that Boris Johnson is on course to be re-elected as London mayor on May 3rd, placing him ten points (55%) ahead of his rival Ken Livingstone (45%)*. Full data tables are available here.

As it stands, the London Assembly is comprised of 11 Conservative members, eight Labour, three Liberal Democrat, two Green Party and one Independent member. Our poll indicates that three Conservative London Assembly members could lose their seats, which will only be partially counterbalanced by the top-up system. See our assembly calculator here whether you agree or disagree with our individual seat predictions, and take note that our modest 8% predicted swing CON => LAB yields the same result.

Currently, the Mayor sets the budgets unless the Assembly can reach a two thirds majority in favour of alternate budget proposals. Our findings raise the possibility that if Boris Johnson is re-elected as Mayor, he may have to deal with a more hostile and vocal Assembly, which will restrict his room for manoeuvre.
In addition, our poll suggests that smaller parties will do better than prior polling has found. It indicates that the Greens, Liberal Democrats and UKIP could gain seven seats between them.
Our survey has also revealed more support for Siobhan Benita than previously suggested, potentially giving her roughly 6% of the total vote.

*We originally reported Boris 54.15% / Ken 45.85%

By Charlotte Jee

Survation interviewed 1,443 people online between April 18th and 24th. Data were weighted to be representative of the UK public.

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