Survation’s first Westminster voting intention poll from the campaign period finds Labour hold a 23-point lead over the Conservatives. The Conservatives have not received the bounce they were hoping for since calling the election.

Our poll from Sunak’s first week in office showed Labour with a 24-point lead, weeks after the Conservatives recorded their lowest ever vote share in the aftermath of Liz Truss’ mini-budget. We observed a stable Labour lead of around 17-18 points between November and March, while others recorded leads between 16-25 points. However, Labour’s lead has risen in recent weeks. Any minor recovery Sunak might have made now appears to have been undone.

The Prime Minister has tried to frame the election as a presidential-style choice between himself and Keir Starmer. While the two were closely matched on the question of who would make the best Prime Minister during Sunak’s early tenure, the Labour leader has developed a clear lead. This is a question that usually favours the incumbent, but Sunak now trails behind “don’t know.”

Labour currently leads the Conservatives on trust to deal with the economy, and the cost of living has been the most important issue to voters throughout Sunak’s premiership. When it comes to party leaders, the picture is no different. The Conservatives will attack Labour on economic competence, but the public trusts Starmer more than Sunak on the economy.

The same is true for Chancellor Jeremy Hunt and Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves, who has sought to reassure voters that a Labour government will not lead to tax rises.

Labour’s campaign centres on the idea of change. While there is much discussion about the perceived lack of enthusiasm towards the party, we have observed very strong anti-Conservative sentiment since Sunak took office. So far, simply not being the Conservatives seems to be an effective strategy.

The Prime Minister’s decision to call an election has not led to an immediate improvement in the Conservative’s polling numbers. There is a widespread assumption the polls will narrow, but the clue here is in the noun. There is no guarantee and the Conservatives are beginning the campaign with an immense deficit to overcome.

Get the data

Survation conducted a online poll of 2,040 adults aged 18+ in the UK. Fieldwork was conducted between 24th – 27th May 2024. Tables are available here.

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