As the Chancellor prepares to deliver her Spring Statement, she faces a dual challenge: communicating a clear economic vision to the public while managing expectations among market participants, the media, and politicians. Balancing elite management and public communication requires a delicate touch. The Chancellor’s speech is predominantly about narrative control, as she must diagnose the challenges and outline the necessary prescription. 

Most people will not watch the Chancellor’s speech. Instead, they will engage with it through media summaries (particularly push notifications) and commentary. This means that how the message is framed is as important as the content itself. If, as expected, the statement responds to downgraded OBR growth forecasts with deep departmental cuts, much of the communication will focus on reassuring elites that the government is operating within its self-imposed fiscal rules. But effective messaging also demands clarity for the public.

For economic policy to resonate, it must be understood. Yet, many of the indicators policymakers use to measure economic performance do not resonate with the public’s understanding of the economy. In 2023, for example, we found that few people fully grasped what reducing inflation actually meant. The government’s pledge to ‘halve inflation’ largely fell on deaf ears as many assumed this meant price levels would fall, rather than simply rising at a slower rate.

Our research shows that economic growth, the central metric in government communications, is not a primary reference point for most people. When asked which indicators they pay most attention to when thinking about the economy, only 17% of people selected the growth rate. By contrast, 45% cited inflation, 30% pointed to wages and income, and 26% focused on interest rates. A decade ago, during a period of low inflation and negative real interest rates, public priorities would likely have been different, as we would expect people’s interpretation of economic health to develop alongside the events of the day. 

Policymakers might argue that ‘growth’ is intentionally broadbrush because it infuences each of these elements. However, economic growth does not feel universally beneficial. Just 54% of people believe they personally gain when the UK economy is growing. This perception is shaped by income and education. Respondents with a degree were 32% more likely to feel they benefit than those without formal qualifications or with level one qualifications, and those with an annual equivalised household income above £40,000 were 30% more likely to hold this view than those with a household income below £20,000.

Public scepticism about growth is rooted in concerns over who reaps the rewards. When asked who benefits most from economic growth, the most common answers were big businesses and corporations (30%) and the government (24%). Only 14% of people believe that everyone benefits equally, and just 2% identified low-income earners as the main beneficiaries. GDP growth measures total output in an economy, and people clearly see distributional conflicts within this, which goes some way to explaining the famous intervention that “That’s your bloody GDP, not ours.”

This helps explain why economic messaging often falls flat. While half of respondents correctly associate growth with an increase in GDP, this is not a measure they closely track, nor one they feel improves their circumstances. When the Chancellor speaks about growth, she will be hoping to evoke ideas of rising wages, job creation, and higher living standards. But as our research shows, communication may need to be more explicit if Labour is to win public support for its economic agenda.

Get the data

Survation conducted an online poll of 2,001 adults aged 18+ in the UK on their views on economic growth. Fieldwork was conducted between 14th-16th February 2025. Tables are available here.

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