Last night the Conservatives lost their 9th and 10th by-elections of the Parliament. Labour needed an 11 point swing to take Kingswood from the Conservatives – they achieved a 16.4 point swing. Wellingborough looked to be a more difficult task, with Labour requiring an 18 point swing to flip the seat. Labour won Wellingborough on a 28.5 point swing, the second highest Conservative to Labour swing in any post-war by-election.

There is a sense in which we have normalised historic results like last night because Labour’s national polling lead is so robust.

In our latest voting intention polling we see no movement of significance and Labour’s lead over the Conservatives stands at 16 points. The Conservative’s vote share collapsed by -21.3% in Kingswood and -37.6% in Wellingborough. Add this to losing -28.6% in Mid Befordshire, -11.3% in Rutherglen, -7.5% in Uxbridge, -28.9% in Selby, and -29.6% in Somerton and Frome. The party is deeply unpopular and shedding support to both the left and right. In this poll Labour attracted 12% of 2019 Conservative voters and Reform UK 16% (on the 2nd of February it was 16% to Labour and 13% to Reform, as it was in January).

There is plenty of speculation about how tactical voting might shape the next election (and how pollsters might account for it in their models). In an election contested on new boundaries, there is likely to be some uncertainty for tactical voters trying to identify which party they should vote for. We find one in four people have already embedded a tactical consideration into their expressed voting intention, and that 28% who are not currently voting tactically would be willing to vote for a party that is not their first choice if another party had a better chance of winning the seat.

Get the data

Survation conducted an online poll of 1,020 adults aged 18+ living in the UK on their voting intentions. Fieldwork was conducted between 13th -15th February 2024. Tables are available here.

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