The scale of the Conservatives’ collapse in the 2024 general election was unprecedented. The party’s share of the vote fell to its lowest ever level and its net seat losses totalled 252, 74 more than in 1997. Almost anywhere that voters had the opportunity to get rid of a sitting Conservative, they elected to do so by voting for whichever alternative party was best-placed. As a result, Labour won a landslide victory on just 34% of the vote. Their support was so ruthlessly efficient that this returned them 63% of all seats in the Commons. 

Labour gained 214 seats with just a 2% increase in its vote share. Coupling this with the second lowest turnout in a UK election since 1885, some have suggested there was a lack of enthusiasm for Labour. 

Few people were shocked by the result of the election, with three in four suggesting they were not surprised. There is little partisan effect either; Labour voters (24%) were actually marginally more surprised than Conservative voters (23%), but all voters expected a Labour victory.

Those who voted Conservative likely did so knowing that Labour would win the election. Despite the lack of surprise, the outcome has made these voters more negative about the future. Overall, however, there is some optimism, with a plurality feeling more positive. Labour, Liberal Democrat, and Green voters all feel more optimistic, although Labour voters much more enthusiastically so.

Starmer’s personal ratings have received an incumbency boost. He records his largest ever lead over Sunak on the question of who would make the best Prime Minister. Given the Conservative leader is functioning as a caretaker over the next few months, we can expect the Prime Minister’s lead to remain stable.

Starmer also receives a significant boost to his net favourability. Compared to the final week of the campaign, the Prime Minister is up 22 points. Starmer is also popular with Liberal Democrat (+25) and Green voters (+20). Coupling this with their newfound optimism about the future, it is clear that to Greens and Liberal Democrats a Starmer-led Labour government is much more preferable than a Sunak-led Conservative government. 

Interestingly, every leader received a considerable boost to their net favourability when compared to the final week of the campaign. Sunak is +11, Davey +12, and Farage +8. Perhaps voters are glad to see these names relegated in the news cycle.

Labour led the Conservatives on every major policy area heading into the election, but during the campaign Labour spent plenty of time assuring voters that a change of government would not immediately alleviate Britain’s problems. This expectation management appears to have proved effective. There is no policy area in which a majority believe outcomes will improve over the next five years.

Immigration and crime are the two policy areas where people are more likely to believe things will get worse rather than better. A majority of Conservative (58%) and Reform (64%) think outcomes in immigration will get worse, but there is also greater pessimism from Lib Dem and Green voters on this particular issue relative to other areas. 

However there are clear expectations for improvement on one of the issues which dominated the campaign: the NHS. There is significant optimism that NHS outcomes will improve, and even among Conservatives 29% think NHS outcomes will improve compared to 31% who believe they will worsen. Labour are deeply trusted on the NHS and there is a widespread expectation they will improve the service. On housing (which is the only issue for which Conservatives are more likely to think things will improve) and education the public also expect Labour to deliver.

Besides the creation of GB Energy, there is little confidence that any of Labour’s six first steps can be delivered - though we should note that fieldwork preceded the King’s Speech. Labour are trusted on the NHS and people expect outcomes will improve, but just 37% are confident in the specific pledge to deliver 40,000 extra appointments per week. People are most pessimistic about the anti-social behaviour and small boats pledges, both of which fall within the policy areas where the public anticipate the least improvement.

Labour's expectation management during the campaign has left the public with tempered hopes for immediate improvements. The public ultimately rejected the Conservatives because they lost trust in their ability to govern. The low bar set by the public may prove advantageous for Labour. Nonetheless, people do expect delivery on two of the most challenging policy areas: housing and the NHS. Fulfilling expectations here will be crucial for Labour.

Get the data

Survation conducted an online poll of 2,058 adults aged 18+ in the UK. Fieldwork was conducted between 12th - 16th July 2024. Tables are available here. 

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