Yesterday Survation conducted a poll of 1029 people aged 18+ in the UK on behalf of the Daily Mail to find out what they think about the recent Brexit developments, such as Theresa May going back to the EU to renegotiate the Northern Irish backstop and the Malthouse compromise.

The poll also asked respondents for their voting intention in a general election and a second referendum.

State of the parties (change since 11th Jan)

CON 38% (NC)

LAB 39% (-1)

LIB DEM 9% (-1)

GREEN 2% (NC)

UKIP 4% (NC)

SNP 3% (NC)

Other 4% (+1)

EU Referendum Voting Intention (change since 11th Jan)

Leave: 45% (-4)

Remain: 55% (+4)

The poll included a wide range of questions on Brexit and a summary of the results for these can be found below. Tables and methodology for all the questions can be found here.

Summary of Brexit questions

• Who do you think has had the best approach to Brexit?:

Theresa May: 39%

Jeremy Corbyn: 27%

Don’t know: 34%

• Parliament voted yesterday to try to re-open negotiations with the EU on the terms of the UK’s withdrawal agreement with the EU, and particularly the “Northern Ireland Backstop” – the agreed plan to ensure there will never be a “hard border” for goods between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. The EU has since said that the current arrangement which ensures there will never be a “hard border” for goods between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland cannot be renegotiated. How likely do you think it is that the UK government will be able to agree a different, legally binding deal with the EU on this issue?:

Very likely: 6%

Somewhat likely: 21%

Neither likely nor unlikely: 17%

Somewhat unlikely: 23%

Very unlikely: 22%

Don’t know: 10%

• To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statement?    “If Theresa May sticks to her plan to renegotiate the current Brexit deal, the EU will eventually agree to change its position”:

Strongly agree: 6%

Somewhat agree: 27%

Neither agree nor disagree: 17%

Somewhat disagree: 20%

Strongly disagree: 20%

Don’t know: 10%

• If the EU does not change its position on the Brexit deal and negotiations break down, would you support or oppose the UK leaving the EU without a deal?:

Support: 41%

Oppose: 44%

Don’t know: 16%

• If the EU does not change its position on the Brexit deal and negotiations break down, would you support or oppose a new deal which contained plans to stay in the single market and customs union, a ‘softer Brexit’?:

Support: 40%

Oppose: 35%

Don’t know: 25%

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• If the EU does not change its position on the Brexit deal but gives new assurances that the Northern Irish backstop would not be permanent, which of the following would be closest to your view?:

This would be an acceptable compromise: 38%

This would not be an acceptable compromise: 28%

Don’t know: 34%.

• What do you think is the most likely outcome for the renegotiations between the EU and the UK?:

The UK leaving without a deal: 36%

No changes to the current deal: 20%

A renegotiated deal which does not include the backstop plan for the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland: 25%

Don’t know: 19%

• If there was a referendum tomorrow, with the following 3 options on the ballot paper, which would you support?:

A new deal as approved by MPs yesterday without the Northern Ireland backstop: 19%

Remaining in EU: 46%

Leaving without a deal: 26%

Don’t know: 9%

• To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statement? “The victory last night for the amendment which calls for a re-opening of negotiations has only bought Theresa May more time”:

Strongly agree: 19%

Somewhat agree: 45%

Neither agree nor disagree: 17%

Somewhat disagree: 8%

Strongly disagree: 4%

Don’t know: 7%

• Some have criticised Theresa May by saying she has given too many concessions to leading Leave supporting MPs. Others have said she has listened to the diverse views across the Conservative Party Which of the following is closest to your view?:

Theresa May has given too many concessions to Brexiteers: 34%

Theresa May has not given too many concessions to Brexiteers: 36%

Don’t know: 29%

• On Monday night a group of Conservative MPs created a new compromise plan for Brexit known as the ‘Malthouse compromise’ This has the backing of a number of both Remain and Leave supporting MPs The compromise calls for Theresa May to renegotiate the Northern Irish backstop, replacing it with a free trade agreement which would use as yet unidentified technology to avoid customs checks on the Irish border. The compromise would involve extending the transition period (the time it would take Brexit to take effect) until December 2021 from the current proposed withdrawal agreement’s December 2020 to allow some extra time to agree a trading relationship, in which time the UK would pay most of its £39bn divorce bill. To what extent do you support or oppose this compromise?:

Strongly support: 8%

Somewhat support: 26%

Neither support nor oppose: 26%

Somewhat oppose: 15%

Strongly oppose: 12%

Don’t know: 13%

• Yesterday the UK parliament voted for an amendment put forward by a Conservative and a Labour MP that stated effectively that “Parliament did not believe the UK leaving the EU with no deal was a good idea” However, this was not legally binding – meaning it does not stop “no deal brexit”. Regardless of your view on this, which of the following is closest to your view?:

Parliament was right to vote to reject the UK leaving without a deal: 46%

Parliament was wrong to vote to reject the UK leaving without a deal: 35%

Don’t know: 18%

• To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statement? “Theresa May has only agreed to renegotiate her deal to keep the Conservative Party together”:

Strongly agree: 23%

Somewhat agree: 33%

Neither agree nor disagree: 19%

Somewhat disagree: 11%

Strongly disagree: 6%

Don’t know: 9%

• To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements?: “Yesterday’s vote by MPs to re-negotiate is a key breakthrough to achieving a good Brexit deal for the UK”:

Strongly agree: 9%

Somewhat agree: 28%

Neither agree nor disagree: 28%

Somewhat disagree: 16%

Strongly disagree: 10%

Don’t know: 9%

• To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements?: “Yesterday’s vote by MPs to re-negotiate increases the risk of the UK leaving the EU without a deal”:

Strongly agree: 11%

Somewhat agree: 31%

Neither agree nor disagree: 32%

Somewhat disagree: 13%

Strongly disagree: 4%

Don’t know: 10%

• The UK is due to leave the EU on the 29th March Which of the following do you think should be the deadline for Theresa May to gain new concessions from the EU on her deal?:

By the 14th February: 35%

By the 14th March: 27%

By the 28th March: 20%

Don’t know: 18%

• Which of the following is closest to your view?:

The longer the stalemate over Brexit goes on, the more likely I am to support leaving the EU without a deal: 30%

The longer the stalemate over Brexit goes on, the less likely I am to support leaving the EU without a deal: 21%

The length of the stalemate over Brexit will make no difference to my support for leaving the EU without a deal: 35%

Don’t know: 14%

Survation conducted an online poll of 1,029 people aged 18+ living in the UK. Fieldwork was on the 30th January 2019.

Full data tables and methodology can be found here.

Survation is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

To learn more about Survation’s polling capabilities or to commission a poll, contact Harry Mason or John Gibb on 020 3818 9661 or email researchteam@survation.com.

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