Survation’s new regional polling of 2,032 adults in the North and Midlands shows shifting political loyalties since Labour’s landslide victory in the 2024 General Election with notable gains for Reform UK, particularly among former Conservative voters.

Reform UK Now Leading Across the Regions

When asked how they would vote in a general election, Reform UK leads with 30% of the vote – a 12-point increase on their performance in last year’s election. Labour has dropped to 27%, down from 39% in July 2024, while the Conservatives continue to struggle in their recovery, down 2% from the election. The Liberal Democrats and the Greens are up 3 and 2 points respectively on their 2024 performance.

This is driven by a combination of vote switching and disengagement. Labour is currently retaining fewer than three in four (71%) of its 2024 voters in the region. Reform meanwhile is attracting 9% of those who voted Labour in 2024, and 20% of those who voted Conservative at the election.

Reform Viewed as the Biggest Electoral Threat to Labour and the Conservatives

On May 1st, local elections will be held for councils in England that were last contested in 2021 – a cycle during which Reform UK did not stand candidates. Among likely voters in this year’s local elections across the region, Reform holds 29%, compared to 24% for the Conservatives and 20% for Labour.

Reform continues the trend of eating into the Conservative vote, set to take 41% of those who voted for the party in the Local Elections. The party however is also attracting Labour voters, and looks to be competitive in parts of the North East.

More broadly, Reform is seen as Labour’s most serious challenger. When asked to name the party most likely to threaten Labour in this year’s local elections, 44% chose Reform – well ahead of the Conservatives (26%) and Liberal Democrats (8%). 

Discontent Runs Deep

Behind the voting intention numbers, this poll reflects deep dissatisfaction with the state of politics and the country. Two-thirds (66%) of respondents say the country is headed in the wrong direction. A striking 68% say Britain is “broken”, compared to just 23% who say it is not.

This pessimism is particularly pronounced on the issue of immigration and the NHS. Asked which policy area needs the most radical reform, immigration (32%) narrowly edges out health services (31%), with the economy trailing in third.

When voters were asked which issues matter most in deciding how they’ll vote locally, national concerns topped the list: the cost of living (53%), immigration (35%), and health (32%). Traditional local services (potholes, waste management) scored much lower – 13% and 9% respectively, continuing the trend of voters assessing local elections through a national prism.

Farage Competitive on Leadership Qualities

Among the major party leaders, Nigel Farage is the most approved of across the North & Midlands – albeit still with negative net ratings. He is viewed favourably by 36% and unfavourably by 40%, for a net approval of -4%. By contrast, Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s net rating in the region is -26%, with 53% disapproving and just 27% approving.

Rachel Reeves performs even worse, with a net approval of -35%. Just 19% approve of her performance as Chancellor, while 54% disapprove.

On head-to-head leadership traits, Farage consistently leads Starmer, including being a strong leader (35% to 26%), representing working people (33% to 25%), and standing up for the UK (39% to 29%). On having the most in common with you, Farage edges Starmer 24% to 20%.

The Prime Minister’s only clear lead is on improving the NHS, where he holds a five-point advantage (30% to 25%), although even here, a third of respondents say neither leader can deliver. With most voters clearly indicating that immigration and the NHS require radical reform, it is unclear which of the two figures they trust the most to handle both of those issues.

What Next?

These findings reflect the shifting political sands in the North and Midlands. The 2024 General Election reset the parliamentary map, but many voters in these regions are clearly unhappy with the government’s early performance. Reform UK is making headway with voters in the region particularly on the issue of immigration and at the expense of both the Conservative and Labour. 

Reform’s presence this year is likely to cause a significant disruption to the status quo across the Midlands and the North of England and the party is undoubtedly well positioned to make big gains at the upcoming local elections. 

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Get the data

Survation conducted an online poll of 2,032 adults aged 18+ in the North and Midlands on their voting intentions on behalf of Friderichs Advisory Partners. Fieldwork was conducted between 11th – 13th April 2025. Tables are available here.

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