Labour’s Polling Honeymoon is indeed, over. 

On the heels of their General Election victory Labour were experiencing a (very) brief post-election polling honeymoon in August, a near 39% vote share, and a 13-14 point lead with Survation over the Conservatives. Reform’s vote share at the time was at 13-14%, with the Liberal Democrats (12%) tracking in line with their General Election performance.

However, our Westminster polling at the end of 2024 had Labour down to 30%, holding just a 5-point lead over the Tories, who remain stagnant at 25% since the General Election. The Liberal Democrats essentially unchanged at 11%, while Reform, polling at 20%, appearing to have made notable traction with the public (Greens at 7%).

Who are Reform’s new voters?

The new Reform voters—those driving the party’s increase from 13% to 20% in our polling—are (still) sapping more support from the Conservatives (14%) than from Labour (7%) in terms of the respective parties’ 2024 vote.

Labour’s vote share problems are not a factor of a “Reform specific effect.”, rather, the party is leaking its 2024 vote as much to the Conservatives (7%) as to Reform (7%), with the Liberal Democrats and the Greens picking up 3-4% each. Nevertheless, three-quarters of Labour’s 2024 voters remain loyal.

Labour would win a decent majority on our current polling figures

In an election under our current polling scenario, Reform prevents the Conservatives from making progress by splitting the right, which would still leave Labour with a sizeable majority of around 60 seats. The Liberal Democrats would largely retain their 2024 seat tally, and can keep their 70 seat haul without improving their vote share under any reasonable outcome. 

What are the vote share requirements for a Farage-led Government?

The type of polling that would see Labour out of office and a Reform-led minority Government (the right unites) would need to look (at least) something like this (vote share / seats won):

CON 20% (47) LAB 26% (213) REF 31% (271) LD 11% (71) GRE 7% (4) OTH 5% (44)

=> Reform would be short 55 of a majority, but could form a government in a coalition with CON + NI parties.

So, Reform in 2029 needs a) a large lead over the Conservatives (11 points in this scenario) and b) Labour to underperform by around 8 points compared to their already underwhelming 2024 election result.

The Challenge for Reform—and Labour

Is this outcome likely? It’s possible, but three factors must align:

1. Reform’s platform does not suffer from the vote “ceiling” trend of the past
2. Labour’s “leaky voter bucket” remains unpatched.
3. The Conservatives vote collapses far further to Reform vs current depressed levels. 

Labour’s Path Ahead: Opportunities and Warnings

Labour’s polling honeymoon may be over, but the party remains in a solid position to secure another majority—provided they address the deep challenges at hand. While Reform’s rise has reshaped the political landscape, it currently serves more as a barrier to Conservative resurgence than as a direct threat to Labour’s position.

The next election is still Labour’s to lose, but a strategy to retain loyalty, rebuild trust, and address voter concerns will be critical to turning current figures into a second term.